Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T01:47:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
A2 0xa23a…f84e politics 20 markets active 0h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 20L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$403per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$8
14 days−$8
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 53% −$5
other 41% −$4
economics 3% −$2
world 2% −$1
culture 1% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 17 -0.9% -10.4% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 20 -0.8% -10.3% 0% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.8% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.7% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,065) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$1 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 20
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)20 / 20
History coverage92d
Avg bet$403
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 20 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by June 30? Jun 26 $58 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $1,099 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 26 $1,135 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2026 World Series? Jun 25 $1,065 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 25 $60 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 25 $1,060 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 25 $1,156 −$2 -0%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 25 $1,116 −$2 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Apr 21 $212 −$2 -1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $208 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 18 $6 $0 -6%
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30? Apr 17 $10 −$1 -7%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $213 $0 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 11 $209 $0 -0%
Will Israel strike 14 countries in 2026? Mar 29 $151 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Mar 29 $56 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 29 $23 $0 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Mar 26 $119 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 26 $77 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Mar 26 $27 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $58 29m
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,098 34m
Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $14 45m
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,054 52m
Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $29 1h
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 1h
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $206 1h
Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $15 1h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $33 1h
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $751 1h
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $312 2h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $12 2h
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $1,065 2h
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $60 18h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,059 18h
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $18 19h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,029 19h
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $30 19h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,155 19h
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $12 19h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,136 19h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $31 19h
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $827 20h
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $287 20h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $21 20h
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 100¢ $1,116 20h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 95¢ $210 65d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 96¢ $212 65d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $207 68d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $208 68d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 61 history records