Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:41:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa23c…5c54 sports 20 markets active 11h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$28 (-9%) realized −$61 · open +$33
Gross ROI / mkt -57% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -64% what you keep after slip
Net edge-64%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate18%3W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$128now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$5
sports 38% −$24
crypto 17% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-60.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -56.6% -60.7% 18% 18% -46.2%
≤30d 17 -56.6% -60.7% 18% 18% -46.2%
≤90d 17 -56.6% -60.7% 18% 18% -46.2%
all 17 -56.6% -60.7% 18% 18% -46.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -60.7% 18% -46.2%
10% -64.5% 18% -51.3%
15% -67.9% 18% -56.0%
20% -71.1% 18% -60.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 83% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -40% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -57% · $-wt -40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -71% → late -44% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$8 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$128
Realized−$61
Unrealized+$33
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses3 / 14
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)17 / 20
History coverage3d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $92 $127 +$35 (+37%)
Will Lennart Kahl score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-36%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? Yes $2 $0 −$2 (-90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Fermín López score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$6 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $15 −$3 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -94%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $9 +$12 +128%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $28 −$28 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $37 −$9 -23%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones Jun 15 $7 −$1 -14%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $24 +$14 +58%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $19 −$19 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $18 −$18 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? BUY Yes $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Up 33¢ $4 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $12 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Up $0 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $16 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up $5 11h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S SELL GenOne 100¢ $21 11h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY GenOne 43¢ $9 11h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 11h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $28 39h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 48¢ $28 39h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 61¢ $37 39h
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones BUY Francesca Jones $1 39h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 99¢ $38 39h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 62¢ $24 40h
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones SELL Talia Gibson 49¢ $24 40h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 40h
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones BUY Talia Gibson 12¢ $6 40h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports $1 40h
Will Lennart Kahl score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 42h
Will Fermín López score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $128.00 · official $128.00 (match) · 39 history records