Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:27:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa23f…0311 sports 127 markets active 0h ago coverage 47d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$72 (+1%) realized +$59 · open +$13
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate87%105W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$93per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$693now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23
7 days+$253
14 days+$63
30 days+$64
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$6
other 16% +$157
crypto 1% −$75
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 85 -0.8% -10.2% 86% 15% -6.9%
≤30d 120 -0.9% -10.3% 88% 17% -9.0%
≤90d 121 -1.7% -11.1% 87% 17% -9.0%
all 121 -1.7% -11.1% 87% 17% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 17% -9.0%
10% -19.6% 7% -17.7%
15% -27.3% 3% -25.7%
20% -34.5% 2% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$56 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$693
Realized+$59
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses105 / 16
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions6
Markets (closed)121 / 127
History coverage47d
Avg bet$93
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 121 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Chicago Cubs 98¢ 100¢ $295 $300 +$4 (+1%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves San Francisco Giants 96¢ 100¢ $96 $100 +$4 (+4%)
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Milwaukee Brewers 98¢ 100¢ $98 $100 +$2 (+2%)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Pittsburgh Pirates 97¢ 99¢ $97 $99 +$2 (+2%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 57¢ $76 $57 −$19 (-24%)
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 36¢ $18 $36 +$18 (+103%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $96 +$4 +4%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $85 +$15 +18%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -97%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $10 $0 +2%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $83 +$17 +20%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 17 $105 +$5 +5%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $113 +$7 +6%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $108 +$2 +2%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $8 −$8 -99%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 16 $99 +$1 +1%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $10 $0 +5%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $206 +$94 +46%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $308 +$2 +1%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $296 +$4 +2%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $70 −$69 -99%
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Laurent Lokoli Jun 15 $97 +$3 +3%
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva Jun 15 $184 +$14 +8%
Poznan: Facundo Acosta vs Franco Roncadelli Jun 15 $97 +$3 +3%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Maria Timofeeva vs Renata Za Jun 15 $84 +$16 +18%
Nottingham 2: Oliver Tarvet vs Roman Safiullin Jun 15 $180 +$20 +11%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yu Jun 15 $97 +$3 +3%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova Jun 15 $98 +$2 +2%
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien Jun 15 $98 +$2 +2%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $112 +$38 +34%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $288 +$12 +4%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $363 +$37 +10%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 15 $19 +$1 +7%
Will CD Universidad Católica win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $166 +$34 +20%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $30 −$29 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $74 −$73 -99%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $19 +$81 +426%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $99 +$1 +1%
Will CD Universidad Católica vs. CD Universidad de Concepción end in a Jun 14 $12 −$12 -97%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $98 +$2 +2%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 14 $9 +$1 +9%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $495 +$5 +1%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $76 −$75 -99%
Halle Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Jun 14 $109 +$1 +1%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar Jun 14 $98 +$2 +2%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Sean Cuenin vs Stefano D'agostino Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
ITF Martos: Joao Domingues vs Pablo Martinez Gomez Jun 14 $10 $0 +3%
ITF Monastir: Dominick Mosejczuk vs Cesar Bouchelaghem Jun 14 $5 +$5 +90%
ITF Madrid: Ruth Roura Llaverias vs Briyana Ivanova Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
ITF Guimaraes: Aliona Falei vs Savannah Broadus Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
ITF Tokyo: Naoya Honda vs Jangjun Kim Jun 14 $197 +$3 +2%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $397 +$103 +26%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $99 +$1 +1%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $190 +$10 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 97¢ $97 0m
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 98¢ $98 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 98¢ $98 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 99¢ $99 1h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $18 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $77 1h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 96¢ $96 1h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 98¢ $98 1h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 96¢ $96 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 85¢ $85 22h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 22h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 98¢ $10 23h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 98¢ $10 24h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 95¢ $95 24h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Colorado Rockies 96¢ $96 24h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 84¢ $8 24h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Colorado Rockies 90¢ $9 24h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $83 25h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 25h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 99¢ $99 47h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 94¢ $9 2d
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Colorado Rockies 78¢ $8 2d
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 99¢ $99 2d
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 95¢ $10 2d
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 99¢ $99 2d
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 99¢ $298 2d
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 98¢ $78 2d
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 98¢ $20 2d
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 99¢ $99 2d
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 95¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $693.10 · official $691.10 (match) · 315 history records