Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:10:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
A2 0xa23f…7f29 sports 116 markets active 0h ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,716 (+18%) realized +$1,746 · open −$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate52%46W / 43L
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$69est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$1,606now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$5
14 days−$6
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% +$1,676
crypto 22% −$10
other 3% +$5
weather 1% −$24
tech 0% −$6
politics 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -99.9% -99.9% 0% 0% -99.9%
≤30d 17 +22.8% +11.1% 41% 41% +4.7%
≤90d 48 +19.6% +8.2% 58% 54% +17.1%
all 89 -0.7% -10.2% 52% 44% +9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 44% +9.0%
10% -18.8% 35% -1.5%
15% -26.6% 31% -11.0%
20% -33.8% 28% -19.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +29% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +20% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late +25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$21 · ×2.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.85 per $1 lost it wins $2.85
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$1,606
Realized+$1,746
Unrealized−$30
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses46 / 43
Est. fees paid−$69
Open positions27
Markets (closed)89 / 116
History coverage140d
Avg bet$83
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 27 History 89 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Over 57¢ 100¢ $156 $273 +$116 (+74%)
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Under 40¢ 100¢ $86 $215 +$129 (+150%)
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 68¢ 100¢ $144 $212 +$68 (+47%)
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 44¢ 100¢ $81 $185 +$104 (+129%)
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Under 39¢ 100¢ $62 $159 +$96 (+155%)
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals No 79¢ 100¢ $88 $112 +$24 (+27%)
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Under 52¢ 100¢ $49 $93 +$44 (+91%)
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Under 90¢ 100¢ $78 $87 +$9 (+11%)
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Over 61¢ 100¢ $38 $62 +$24 (+64%)
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire? No 76¢ 100¢ $33 $44 +$11 (+32%)
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Under 43¢ 100¢ $17 $39 +$22 (+132%)
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Ecuador 51¢ 100¢ $19 $38 +$19 (+96%)
Ecuador vs. Germany: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Over 72¢ 100¢ $15 $21 +$6 (+39%)
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Curaçao O/U 2.5 Corners Over 55¢ 100¢ $11 $20 +$9 (+82%)
Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador O/U 4.5 Corners Under 81¢ 100¢ $13 $16 +$3 (+23%)
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 83¢ 100¢ $12 $15 +$3 (+20%)
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 4.5 Corners Under 58¢ 100¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+72%)
Amad Diallo: 1+ goals No 81¢ 100¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+23%)
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score in First Half Yes 10¢ 0¢ $31 $0 −$31 (-100%)
Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador O/U 1.5 Under 6¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-99%)
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Under 35¢ 0¢ $96 $0 −$96 (-100%)
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Germany 34¢ 0¢ $76 $0 −$76 (-100%)
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 24¢ 0¢ $52 $0 −$52 (-100%)
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 5.5 Over 11¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Over 66¢ 0¢ $109 $0 −$109 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Ivory (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast Asia Gro Jun 16 $1 $0 -30%
ITF Milano: Manuel Mazza vs Marcello Serafini Jun 16 $1 $0 -18%
Libema Open: James McCabe vs Zizou Bergs Jun 10 $3 +$12 +362%
Libema Open: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 10 $9 +$1 +16%
Roland Garros WTA: Anastasia Potapova vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 10 $25 +$5 +22%
Lyon: Thomas Faurel vs Florent Bax Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 01 $1 +$4 +488%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Iga Swiatek Jun 01 $2 +$2 +100%
ITF Tauste-Zaragoza: Jennifer Ruggeri vs Kayla Day Jun 01 $4 +$1 +32%
ITF Bol: Noa Vukadin vs Duje Ajdukovic Jun 01 $9 +$6 +75%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Francisco Comesana May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Martin Landaluce May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Centurion: Eliakim Coulibaly vs Giles Hussey May 30 $6 −$4 -69%
Roland Garros ATP: Alex Michelsen vs Rafael Jodar May 29 $8 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FaZe (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 29 $6 −$6 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Nuno Borges vs Andrey Rublev May 29 $3 −$1 -36%
Will Kayserispor win on 2026-04-11? Apr 28 $7 +$9 +124%
Will Kayserispor vs. Fenerbahçe SK end in a draw? Apr 28 $14 +$2 +17%
Will Praggnanandhaa R vs. Fabiano Caruana end in a draw? Apr 28 $16 +$15 +97%
Will Deportivo Toluca FC win on 2026-04-05? Apr 05 $30 $0 +1%
Will Querétaro FC vs. Deportivo Toluca FC end in a draw? Apr 05 $26 +$4 +16%
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-04-11? Apr 05 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Praggnanandhaa R win on 2026-04-05 at FIDE Candidates 2026 Open? Apr 05 $6 −$5 -98%
Will Fabiano Caruana win on 2026-04-05 at FIDE Candidates 2026 Open? Apr 05 $9 −$8 -98%
Will Kansas City Current win on 2026-04-04? Apr 05 $0 $0 +134%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Delhi Capitals Apr 05 $3 +$3 +87%
Will Kansas City Current vs. NJ/NY Gotham FC end in a draw? Apr 04 $0 $0 -98%
LoL: Estral Esports vs RMD Gaming (BO1) - Circuito Desafiante Regular Mar 31 $93 +$26 +28%
Qingdao Eagles vs. Beijing Royal Fighters Mar 31 $144 +$73 +51%
Counter-Strike: STATE vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #20 Group Sta Mar 31 $688 +$606 +88%
Counter-Strike: MINLATE vs ALGO Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #20 Mar 31 $2,485 −$67 -3%
Counter-Strike: STATE vs OlyBet SB (BO3) - European Pro League Series Mar 30 $76 +$46 +60%
LoL: Team WE vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Qua Mar 30 $104 +$81 +79%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Chicago Cubs Mar 30 $0 $0 -99%
Counter-Strike: Acend vs CarritoSpain (BO1) - Roman Imperium Cup Group Mar 30 $1,070 +$408 +38%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham Playof Mar 29 $86 +$86 +100%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Sinners (BO1) - Roman Imperium Cup Group C Mar 29 $333 +$267 +80%
Counter-Strike: Metizport vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #20 Grou Mar 29 $58 +$107 +186%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs JiJieHao (BO1) - Roman Imperium Cup Group C Mar 29 $38 −$38 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Houston Astros Mar 29 $73 +$55 +75%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs ShindeN (BO3) - FERJEE In House Playoffs Mar 29 $56 −$56 -100%
Valorant: Mandatory vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - VCL EMEA: Playoffs Mar 29 $64 +$43 +67%
Overwatch: Virtus.pro vs Team Peps (BO3) - OCS EMEA Stage 1 Group Stag Mar 29 $217 +$44 +20%
Counter-Strike: BESTIA vs Wildcard (BO1) - Roman Imperium Cup Group A Mar 28 $8 +$7 +96%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs NOMERCY (BO1) - Roman Imperium Cup Gro Mar 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty Le Mar 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Beijing Royal Fighters vs. Ningbo Rockets Mar 28 $5 $0 +8%
Valorant: Mandatory vs Misa Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Playoffs Mar 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Fabric FDV above $300M one day after launch? Feb 26 $14 +$5 +37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 72¢ $83 15m
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 36¢ $34 15m
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $27 16m
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 90¢ $79 16m
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 64¢ $10 19m
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY No 76¢ $34 29m
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 71¢ $143 30m
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 34¢ $74 31m
Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Under 81¢ $13 31m
Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador O/U 1.5 BUY Under 7¢ $16 32m
Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador O/U 1.5 BUY Under 3¢ $2 32m
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 1 Germany? BUY No 56¢ $32 32m
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $38 32m
Ecuador vs. Germany: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 72¢ $15 37m
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) BUY Curaçao 18¢ $23 45m
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals BUY No 87¢ $26 50m
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 42¢ $55 56m
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $37 56m
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Under 58¢ $5 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 22¢ $23 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 51¢ $20 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 11¢ $19 1h
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals BUY No 76¢ $63 1h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 12¢ $7 1h
Amad Diallo: 1+ goals BUY No 81¢ $6 1h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Curaçao O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 55¢ $11 1h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 57¢ $12 1h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $5 1h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 10¢ $32 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 40¢ $88 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,606.12 · official $1,606.12 (match) · 458 history records