Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T06:14:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa23f…aa20 politics 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 275d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate38%16W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 34% −$1
world 28% $0
other 18% +$1
sports 9% $0
tech 6% $0
crypto 3% $0
economics 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.1% -9.4% 33% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 9 +0.8% -8.8% 56% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 9 +0.8% -8.8% 56% 0% -9.2%
all 42 -0.5% -10.0% 38% 2% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 2% -9.5%
10% -18.6% 2% -18.1%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

275d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses16 / 26
Open positions0
Markets (closed)42 / 42
History coverage275d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 42 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? Jun 25 $27 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 24 $31 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 24 $31 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $30 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $63 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 04 $31 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $3 $0 +5%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $12 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $31 +$1 +2%
Will Curtis Sliwa win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 07 $22 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Oct 07 $6 $0 -0%
Will Vlad Gheorghe be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 07 $23 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE? Oct 07 $2 $0 -20%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Oct 06 $21 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with iShowSpeed in 2025? Oct 06 $4 $0 -2%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 06 $28 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Oct 06 $26 $0 +0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 05 $28 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin in 2025? Oct 05 $28 $0 -1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 04 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 National League Championship? Oct 04 $28 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Oct 04 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 02 $2 +$1 +27%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 02 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 02 $25 $0 +0%
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? Oct 01 $36 $0 +1%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 01 $2 −$1 -40%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 30 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 30 $21 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Sep 30 $18 $0 -1%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Sep 30 $11 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 29 $28 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 29 $56 $0 +0%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Sep 28 $27 $0 -1%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 28 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Sep 28 $4 $0 +6%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 28 $28 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,500,000-1,750,000 people? Sep 27 $25 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Sep 26 $28 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 26 $28 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in September? Sep 25 $28 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $27 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $27 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $13 10h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $18 10h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $31 14h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $6 27h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $26 27h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $31 28h
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 18¢ $4 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 18¢ $10 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 18¢ $13 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $16 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $7 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $9 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 18d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $32 18d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $32 18d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $18 18d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $13 18d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $32 19d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $11 21d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $19 21d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $2 21d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $31 21d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 22d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 22d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 22d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $12 22d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $12 22d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $28 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 171 history records