Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:52:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa241…45f7 world 92 markets active 0h ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$11,227 (-5%) realized −$10,533 · open −$694
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate43%38W / 50L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,524per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$243est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$456now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$80
7 days+$72
14 days+$72
30 days+$1,998
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 54% −$3,313
world 30% +$1,509
other 7% −$5,912
sports 5% −$2,361
economics 3% −$960
crypto 0% −$251
culture 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.1% -9.5% 57% 57% -3.4%
≤30d 12 +21.4% +9.9% 67% 67% +18.7%
≤90d 67 -7.1% -15.9% 45% 43% -17.0%
all 88 -9.4% -18.1% 43% 40% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.1% 40% -13.7%
10% ← realistic here -25.9% 35% -21.9%
15% -33.1% 24% -29.5%
20% -39.6% 19% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$2,570) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -12% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,049 vs −$1,010 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$456
Realized−$10,533
Unrealized−$694
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses38 / 50
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$243
Open positions4
Markets (closed)88 / 92
History coverage108d
Avg bet$2,524
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 88 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $500 $235 −$265 (-53%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 40¢ 40¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $500 $74 −$426 (-85%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? No 30¢ 30¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $152 +$80 +53%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $153 −$150 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $202 +$106 +52%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $152 −$150 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$111 +109%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $203 +$175 +86%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $508 +$513 +101%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $1,500 −$68 -4%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 30 $2,027 +$589 +29%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $512 +$278 +54%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $800 +$614 +77%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $1,021 −$1,000 -98%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? May 06 $1,000 +$392 +39%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? May 06 $2,345 +$821 +35%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 23 $5,500 +$1,336 +24%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 18 $14,238 −$10,033 -70%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-15? Apr 16 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Arsenal FC vs. Sporting CP: Both Teams to Score Apr 16 $500 −$500 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $1,000 +$521 +52%
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026? Apr 15 $2,000 +$1,080 +54%
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by Ap Apr 15 $1,800 +$351 +20%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? Apr 15 $4,350 +$513 +12%
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5) Apr 15 $167 −$167 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $400 −$180 -45%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31? Apr 14 $2,384 −$456 -19%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 12 $4,000 +$311 +8%
Alcaraz vs. Sinner: Match O/U 22.5 Apr 12 $500 −$500 -100%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner Apr 12 $2,500 −$2,500 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? Apr 12 $700 −$201 -29%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? Apr 12 $1,000 −$155 -16%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day April 8–12? Apr 12 $700 +$238 +34%
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 10 $1,000 +$138 +14%
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? Apr 09 $1,000 +$380 +38%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30? Apr 09 $2,380 −$1,001 -42%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 09 $500 −$439 -88%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? Apr 08 $400 −$56 -14%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 08 $2,000 −$532 -27%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 08 $1,000 −$41 -4%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 08 $5,058 −$70 -1%
Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to Score Apr 08 $25 −$25 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? Apr 07 $4,500 +$3,935 +87%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 07 $3,500 +$5,071 +145%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? Apr 07 $2,570 −$1,380 -54%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? Apr 07 $2,700 +$402 +15%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? Apr 07 $423 −$171 -40%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? Apr 07 $1,265 −$354 -28%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? Apr 07 $500 +$493 +99%
Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 3.5 Apr 07 $24 +$25 +105%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-07? Apr 07 $100 +$120 +120%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 30¢ $51 14m
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $102 16m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 78¢ $232 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 50¢ $152 1h
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $514 2d
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $514 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 41¢ $153 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $152 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 65¢ $202 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 38¢ $102 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 4d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $203 5d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 35¢ $405 18d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 49¢ $508 18d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? SELL Yes 27¢ $396 18d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? SELL Yes 28¢ $395 18d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 50¢ $1,008 18d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 17¢ $512 18d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $2,027 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $1,414 18d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 30¢ $1,021 42d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? SELL No 96¢ $4,878 55d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 67¢ $455 58d
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $1,000 62d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,521 62d
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? BUY No 20¢ $1,000 63d
Arsenal FC vs. Sporting CP: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $500 63d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $1,000 63d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $1,000 63d
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $1,111 63d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $456.28 · official $456.28 (match) · 595 history records