Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T09:51:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
A2 0xa245…dab8 other 108 markets active 1h ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$66 (-0%) realized −$66 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate11%12W / 95L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$219per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$12
politics 35% −$10
sports 7% −$45
crypto 5% −$1
world 2% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 87 -1.6% -11.0% 6% 3% -9.7%
all 107 -2.6% -11.8% 11% 7% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 7% -9.8%
10% -20.3% 6% -18.4%
15% -28.0% 4% -26.3%
20% -35.0% 3% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -5% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$2 · ×4.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$66
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses12 / 95
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)107 / 108
History coverage117d
Avg bet$219
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 107 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 25 $259 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $22 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $403 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $368 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $299 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $149 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $536 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $347 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 05 $162 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 04 $203 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $177 $0 -0%
Will Frances Tiafoe win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 02 $361 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $208 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 02 $195 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 02 $183 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $348 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 30 $166 $0 -0%
Will Germán Vargas Lleras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election Apr 30 $155 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $359 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $332 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 29 $157 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $357 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 27 $170 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 27 $188 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $791 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $214 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $454 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 24 $152 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $335 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $166 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 22 $193 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $198 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 21 $375 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $183 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $403 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $216 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $207 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $191 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $221 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 18 $200 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $328 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $358 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $176 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 17 $153 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $167 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $355 −$1 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $180 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $179 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $222 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $400 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $32 1h
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $34 1h
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $34 10d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $22 14d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $22 15d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $185 25d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $185 28d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $176 33d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $176 35d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $154 35d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $154 42d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $149 42d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $149 49d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $170 49d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $170 49d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $162 49d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $162 51d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $162 51d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $162 51d
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $203 52d
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $203 52d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $177 53d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $177 53d
Will Frances Tiafoe win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 100¢ $156 53d
Will Frances Tiafoe win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 100¢ $156 53d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $208 53d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $208 54d
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $195 54d
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $195 54d
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $183 54d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.98 · official $31.98 (match) · 326 history records