Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:40:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa245…48f7 sports 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$562 (-27%) realized −$540 · open −$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate59%22W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day16.1pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$113now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$582
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-32.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -25.0% -32.2% 59% 43% -35.9%
≤30d 37 -25.0% -32.2% 59% 43% -35.9%
≤90d 37 -25.0% -32.2% 59% 43% -35.9%
all 37 -25.0% -32.2% 59% 43% -35.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.2% 43% -35.9%
10% -38.6% 19% -42.1%
15% -44.6% 14% -47.7%
20% -50.0% 8% -52.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$53 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$113
Realized−$540
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses22 / 15
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions3
Markets (closed)37 / 40
History coverage3d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day16.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Ana Giraldi Requena vs Marianne Argyrokastriti Marianne Argyrokastriti 81¢ 95¢ $50 $59 +$9 (+17%)
ITF Saarlouis: Pieter De Lange vs Nikolai Barsukov Nikolai Barsukov 63¢ 69¢ $50 $55 +$5 (+10%)
ITF Samobor: Andrej Nedic vs Sebastian Sorger Sebastian Sorger 25¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Klosters: Dylan Dietrich vs Adrien Burdet Jun 19 $50 +$7 +14%
ITF Samobor: Nikita Mashtakov vs Nicolas Jadoun Jun 19 $50 +$6 +12%
ITF Tokyo: Naoya Honda vs Hunter Heck Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
ITF Taipei: Hiromi Abe vs Kayo Nishimura Jun 19 $50 +$17 +34%
ITF Irvine: Kenta Miyoshi vs Benjamin O'connell Jun 19 $50 +$6 +12%
ITF Taipei: Yuno Kitahara vs Thasaporn Naklo Jun 19 $51 −$50 -99%
ITF Irvine: Patsy Daughters vs Alina Shcherbinina Jun 18 $50 +$4 +7%
ITF Tulsa: Ilyas Milad Fahim vs Jeffrey John Wolf Jun 18 $50 +$6 +12%
ITF Tauste: Elena Milovanovic vs Yushan Shao Jun 18 $9 −$9 -97%
ITF Bolszewo: Maja Pawelska vs Weronika Ewald Jun 18 $50 +$5 +10%
ITF Tulsa: Duncan Chan vs Braden Shick Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
ITF Dinard: Lena Thomas Iglesias vs Margaux Maquet Jun 18 $50 +$5 +11%
ITF Luque: Romina Ccuno vs Emily Zornada Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
ITF Klosters: Alexandre Aubriot vs Sandro Kopp Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
ITF Klosters: Nicole Gadient vs Mara Guth Jun 18 $50 +$4 +7%
ITF Klosters: Tina Manescu vs Adrienn Nagy Jun 18 $50 +$5 +11%
ITF Klosters: Pedro Sakamoto vs Tanguy Genier Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Set Handicap: O'Connell (-1.5) vs Bonzi (+1.5) Jun 18 $51 −$50 -99%
ITF Zhengzhou: Qiu Yu Ye vs Yufei Ren Jun 18 $50 +$6 +12%
ITF Zhengzhou: Chenting Zhu vs Jia-Jing Lu Jun 18 $4 +$2 +48%
ITF Zhengzhou: Varvara Panshina vs Jiaqi Wang Jun 18 $101 −$37 -36%
ITF Tulsa: Andrew Fenty vs Victor Tosetto Jun 18 $50 +$5 +10%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Petja Drame vs Karine Sarkisova Jun 17 $50 −$50 -99%
ITF Tulsa: Ozan Baris vs Justin Boulais Jun 17 $151 −$150 -99%
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Matias Soto Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
ITF Tulsa: Jonah Braswell vs Nicolas Arseneault Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
ITF San Gregorio: Michelle Kelly Tikhonko vs Amy Stevens Jun 17 $50 +$4 +8%
Nottingham Open (Doubles): Chong/Kempen vs Aoyama/Chan Jun 17 $51 +$37 +73%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse Jun 17 $50 +$20 +40%
ITF Tauste: Viola Turini vs Diana Marcinkevica Jun 17 $50 +$16 +32%
ITF Samobor: Jakub Vrba vs Noa Vukadin Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
ITF Klosters: Julia Stusek vs Zoe Kaegi Jun 17 $50 +$5 +11%
ITF Zhengzhou: Daria Khomutsianskaya vs Jiangxue Han Jun 17 $50 +$5 +11%
ITF Zhengzhou: Varvara Panshina vs Yuyao Li Jun 17 $50 +$3 +6%
ITF Zhengzhou: Rina Saigo vs Tiana Tian Deng Jun 17 $51 +$37 +73%
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+1.5) Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
ITF Tulsa: Axel Nefve vs Jeffrey John Wolf Jun 16 $51 +$29 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ITF Klosters: Dylan Dietrich vs Adrien Burdet BUY Dylan Dietrich 87¢ $50 1h
ITF Samobor: Nikita Mashtakov vs Nicolas Jadoun BUY Nikita Mashtakov 89¢ $50 1h
ITF Samobor: Andrej Nedic vs Sebastian Sorger BUY Sebastian Sorger 25¢ $36 2h
ITF Tokyo: Naoya Honda vs Hunter Heck BUY Naoya Honda 49¢ $51 4h
ITF Saarlouis: Pieter De Lange vs Nikolai Barsukov BUY Nikolai Barsukov 63¢ $51 6h
ITF Taipei: Hiromi Abe vs Kayo Nishimura BUY Hiromi Abe 74¢ $50 7h
ITF Taipei: Yuno Kitahara vs Thasaporn Naklo BUY Thasaporn Naklo 63¢ $51 8h
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Ana Giraldi Requena vs Marianne Argyrokastriti BUY Marianne Argyrokastriti 81¢ $50 8h
ITF Irvine: Kenta Miyoshi vs Benjamin O'connell BUY Kenta Miyoshi 89¢ $50 9h
ITF Irvine: Patsy Daughters vs Alina Shcherbinina BUY Alina Shcherbinina 93¢ $50 16h
ITF Tauste: Elena Milovanovic vs Yushan Shao BUY Yushan Shao 8¢ $9 17h
ITF Tulsa: Duncan Chan vs Braden Shick BUY Duncan Chan 43¢ $51 19h
ITF Tulsa: Ilyas Milad Fahim vs Jeffrey John Wolf BUY Jeffrey John Wolf 89¢ $50 19h
ITF Bolszewo: Maja Pawelska vs Weronika Ewald BUY Weronika Ewald 91¢ $50 20h
ITF Dinard: Lena Thomas Iglesias vs Margaux Maquet BUY Margaux Maquet 90¢ $50 21h
ITF Luque: Romina Ccuno vs Emily Zornada BUY Emily Zornada 34¢ $51 21h
ITF Klosters: Alexandre Aubriot vs Sandro Kopp BUY Alexandre Aubriot 82¢ $50 22h
ITF Klosters: Pedro Sakamoto vs Tanguy Genier BUY Pedro Sakamoto 83¢ $50 25h
Set Handicap: O'Connell (-1.5) vs Bonzi (+1.5) BUY Bonzi 61¢ $51 26h
ITF Klosters: Nicole Gadient vs Mara Guth BUY Mara Guth 93¢ $50 27h
ITF Klosters: Tina Manescu vs Adrienn Nagy BUY Adrienn Nagy 90¢ $50 27h
ITF Zhengzhou: Qiu Yu Ye vs Yufei Ren BUY Yufei Ren 89¢ $50 29h
ITF Zhengzhou: Chenting Zhu vs Jia-Jing Lu BUY Chenting Zhu 67¢ $4 29h
ITF Zhengzhou: Varvara Panshina vs Jiaqi Wang BUY Jiaqi Wang 78¢ $50 31h
ITF Zhengzhou: Varvara Panshina vs Jiaqi Wang BUY Varvara Panshina 75¢ $50 32h
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Petja Drame vs Karine Sarkisova BUY Karine Sarkisova 74¢ $50 35h
ITF Tulsa: Andrew Fenty vs Victor Tosetto BUY Andrew Fenty 91¢ $50 36h
ITF Tulsa: Ozan Baris vs Justin Boulais BUY Justin Boulais 83¢ $50 38h
ITF Tulsa: Ozan Baris vs Justin Boulais BUY Justin Boulais 76¢ $50 39h
ITF Tulsa: Ozan Baris vs Justin Boulais BUY Justin Boulais 76¢ $50 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $113.47 · official $113.78 (match) · 66 history records