Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:13:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A2 0xa247…7175 crypto 50 markets active 0h ago coverage 31d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,384 (+13%) realized +$839 · open +$545
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate60%28W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$212per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$2,729now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$223
7 days−$318
14 days−$155
30 days+$243
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$640
tech 1% −$39
other 1% +$183
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-0.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -9.6% -18.2% 43% 29% -16.1%
≤30d 36 +27.4% +15.2% 67% 58% -6.4%
≤90d 47 +9.8% -0.6% 60% 49% -6.4%
all 47 +9.8% -0.6% 60% 49% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.6% 49% -6.4%
10% -10.2% 49% -15.4%
15% -18.8% 43% -23.6%
20% -26.8% 36% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +14% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$66 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$2,729
Realized+$839
Unrealized+$545
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses28 / 19
Open positions3
Markets (closed)47 / 50
History coverage31d
Avg bet$212
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana dip to $60 by December 31, 2026? Yes 58¢ 75¢ $1,150 $1,483 +$333 (+29%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? Yes 57¢ 76¢ $656 $870 +$215 (+33%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $379 $376 −$3 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 20 $192 +$201 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 20 $297 −$150 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 20 $31 +$10 +33%
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? Jun 20 $560 −$284 -51%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $192 in June? Jun 16 $67 −$39 -59%
Will Solana dip to $40 by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $105 +$6 +6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $3,272 −$63 -2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 11 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June? Jun 10 $6 +$3 +45%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June? Jun 10 $52 +$180 +349%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 in June? Jun 05 $741 +$316 +43%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June? Jun 03 $461 +$132 +29%
Will Bitcoin dip to $67,500 in June? Jun 02 $257 +$203 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 01 $5 +$6 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 01 $5 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET May 31 $10 −$10 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET May 31 $6 +$4 +66%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May? May 31 $577 −$566 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET May 31 $3 +$3 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET May 31 $5 −$2 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 31 $12 +$8 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET May 31 $20 +$6 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET May 31 $41 +$18 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 31 $31 +$21 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET May 31 $14 +$10 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 31 $14 +$8 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 31 $5 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 30 $11 +$12 +113%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET May 30 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Solana dip to $80 in May? May 28 $7 +$6 +80%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in May? May 28 $179 +$315 +176%
Will Solana dip to $70 in May? May 26 $90 −$85 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET May 24 $1 +$2 +166%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? May 23 $2 +$2 +76%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in May? May 20 $4 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 20 $1 $0 +4%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? May 20 $2 −$2 -94%
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? May 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? May 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? May 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET May 20 $3 −$3 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET May 20 $3 +$2 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 20 $19 +$10 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET May 20 $4 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET May 20 $10 −$6 -53%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 57¢ $390 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $36 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 73¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $156 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $153 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $141 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $31 1h
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? SELL Yes 7¢ $275 1h
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 2d
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? BUY Yes 14¢ $171 2d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 74¢ $177 2d
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? BUY Yes 11¢ $93 3d
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? BUY Yes 11¢ $34 3d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 70¢ $134 3d
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? BUY Yes 12¢ $33 3d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $192 in June? SELL Yes 18¢ $28 3d
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? BUY Yes 13¢ $106 3d
Will Solana dip to $40 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 37¢ $111 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 63¢ $3,209 5d
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? BUY Yes 15¢ $62 5d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 51¢ $1,038 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $2 9d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $7 9d
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June? SELL Yes 9¢ $9 10d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 79¢ $233 10d
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June? SELL Yes 90¢ $232 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,729.04 · official $2,729.30 (match) · 241 history records