Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T06:42:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A2
0xa248…8704
world · 35 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$1 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses14 / 21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)35 / 35
History coverage308d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%
Chart Positions 0 History 35 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$4
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $77 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $32 −$2 -8%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $43 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $27 −$2 -6%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $53 +$1 +2%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $9 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $39 +$1 +1%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Dec 26 $5 $0 +1%
Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 01 $5 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Oct 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Oct 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 30 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Sep 30 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Sep 30 $5 $0 +6%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will Zuriel Oduwole win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 22 $10 $0 +0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 21 $5 $0 +1%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Aug 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Aug 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran in 2025? Aug 16 $5 $0 -0%
Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 15 $7 +$1 +9%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Aug 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 12 $5 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump try to fire Powell by August 31? Aug 11 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 70% −$2
politics 11% +$1
other 8% $0
sports 5% $0
crypto 2% $0
culture 2% $0
tech 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $33 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $33 3h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 21¢ $0 15h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 21¢ $4 15h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 21¢ $5 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 74¢ $30 40h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 80¢ $32 44h
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $2 5d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $7 6d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 89¢ $19 6d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $27 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $15 7d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 18¢ $7 7d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 18¢ $7 7d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $41 8d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $43 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $3 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $41 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $44 9d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 83¢ $40 9d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $39 9d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $9 10d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $9 10d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $39 10d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $32 10d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $6 10d
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? SELL No 98¢ $3 169d
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? SELL No 95¢ $2 191d
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? BUY No 96¢ $5 254d
Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 99¢ $5 255d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -2.7% -11.9% 0% 0% -11.5%
≤30d 8 -1.2% -10.7% 25% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 8 -1.2% -10.7% 25% 0% -10.3%
all 35 +0.2% -9.3% 40% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.4%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 89 history records