Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:16:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa248…788f crypto 111 markets active 1h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$28 (+1%) realized +$13 · open +$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate45%49W / 60L
Drawdown86%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day34.0pace
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$114now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$107
7 days+$93
14 days+$38
30 days+$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% +$80
crypto 18% −$38
world 4% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-28.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +18.2% +6.9% 83% 50% -4.7%
≤30d 109 -20.4% -28.0% 45% 32% -8.2%
≤90d 109 -20.4% -28.0% 45% 32% -8.2%
all 109 -20.4% -28.0% 45% 32% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.0% 32% -8.2%
10% ← realistic here -34.9% 21% -17.0%
15% -41.2% 19% -25.0%
20% -46.9% 13% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -34% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$5 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$114
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses49 / 60
Open positions1
Markets (closed)109 / 111
History coverage15d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day34.0
Drawdown86%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 109 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 69¢ 80¢ $99 $114 +$15 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 40 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 1 France? Jun 26 $96 +$4 +4%
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 0 France? Jun 26 $93 +$3 +3%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 3 Mexico? Jun 25 $210 −$153 -73%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 25 $156 +$26 +17%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Canada? Jun 24 $142 +$14 +10%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 24 $73 +$9 +12%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 0 Croatia? Jun 24 $69 +$4 +6%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $62 +$7 +11%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $52 +$10 +20%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $50 +$2 +3%
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $49 +$1 +3%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? Jun 23 $22 +$11 +49%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 23 $13 +$10 +81%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $12 +$1 +8%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 22 $177 +$20 +11%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $8 −$2 -20%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $165 +$12 +7%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Egypt? Jun 22 $105 +$14 +14%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $101 +$4 +4%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $43 +$58 +134%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $17 +$26 +152%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $14 +$3 +21%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$4 +46%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $6 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$2 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 20 $3 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 20 $1 +$2 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$1 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 19 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 19 $1 +$2 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 19 $1 +$1 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$2 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 19 $2 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 19 $2 +$5 +245%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 69¢ $100 52m
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 1 France? SELL No 100¢ $100 53m
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 1 France? BUY No 96¢ $72 1h
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 1 France? BUY No 96¢ $24 1h
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 0 France? SELL No 100¢ $96 1h
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 0 France? BUY No 97¢ $6 1h
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 0 France? BUY No 97¢ $87 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 3 Mexico? BUY Yes 99¢ $28 41h
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 3 Mexico? SELL No 14¢ $28 41h
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 3 Mexico? BUY No 87¢ $182 41h
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 0 Korea Republic? SELL No 100¢ $182 41h
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY No 85¢ $156 42h
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Canada? BUY No 91¢ $142 2d
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY No 89¢ $73 2d
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 0 Croatia? BUY No 94¢ $69 2d
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Ghana? BUY No 90¢ $62 3d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 100¢ $62 3d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 83¢ $52 3d
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 Uzbekistan? SELL No 100¢ $52 3d
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY No 97¢ $50 3d
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 Uzbekistan? SELL No 100¢ $50 3d
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY No 97¢ $43 3d
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY No 97¢ $6 3d
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 67¢ $22 3d
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 1 Algeria? SELL No 99¢ $23 3d
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 1 Algeria? BUY No 54¢ $13 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 92¢ $12 4d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 100¢ $197 4d
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 93¢ $2 4d
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? SELL No 9¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $113.94 · official $113.94 (match) · 582 history records