Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:21:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa24a…d9fa sports 241 markets active 1h ago coverage 97d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$375 (-8%) realized −$375 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate52%124W / 116L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day7.6pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$499
7 days−$499
14 days−$499
30 days−$499
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% −$678
crypto 21% −$151
other 7% −$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -34.5% -40.7% 43% 43% -54.1%
≤30d 7 -34.5% -40.7% 43% 43% -54.1%
≤90d 31 -8.5% -17.2% 52% 45% -43.9%
all 240 -9.3% -18.0% 52% 40% -24.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.0% 40% -24.7%
10% -25.8% 33% -31.9%
15% -33.0% 31% -38.5%
20% -39.6% 27% -44.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -42% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$14 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$375
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses124 / 116
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)240 / 241
History coverage97d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day7.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 240 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $498 −$477 -96%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $35 +$4 +11%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $102 +$101 +100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $101 −$100 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $152 +$73 +48%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $51 −$50 -99%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $2 $0 +1%
Hawks vs. Rockets: O/U 227.5 Mar 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Vanderbilt Commodores (-2.5) Mar 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Houston Cougars (-9.5) Mar 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers Mar 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Celtics vs. Grizzlies: O/U 230.5 Mar 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Illinois Fighting Illini (-10.5) Mar 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Tennessee Volunteers (-11.5) Mar 22 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-03-21? Mar 22 $16 −$16 -100%
California Baptist Lancers vs. Kansas Jayhawks: O/U 138.5 Mar 22 $30 −$30 -100%
Furman Paladins vs. Connecticut Huskies: O/U 136.5 Mar 22 $42 −$42 -100%
Spread: Arizona Wildcats (-30.5) Mar 22 $1 +$1 +92%
Spread: Alabama Crimson Tide (-11.5) Mar 22 $2 +$2 +99%
Raptors vs. Nuggets: O/U 236.5 Mar 22 $2 +$2 +117%
Murcia: Andrea Pellegrino vs Pablo Carreno Busta Mar 22 $5 $0 +8%
Zalgiris Kaunas vs. Real Madrid Mar 22 $4 +$4 +96%
Warriors vs. Pistons: O/U 217.5 Mar 22 $5 +$5 +96%
Missouri Tigers vs. Miami Hurricanes: O/U 146.5 Mar 22 $10 +$9 +88%
LIU Sharks vs. Arizona Wildcats: O/U 149.5 Mar 22 $12 +$13 +112%
Hofstra Pride vs. Alabama Crimson Tide: O/U 157.5 Mar 22 $24 +$4 +18%
Spread: UCLA Bruins (-5.5) Mar 22 $20 +$19 +99%
Northern Iowa Panthers vs. St. John's Red Storm: O/U 132.5 Mar 22 $29 +$27 +92%
Wright State Raiders vs. Virginia Cavaliers: O/U 145.5 Mar 22 $30 +$27 +88%
Northern Iowa Panthers vs. St. John's Red Storm: O/U 131.5 Mar 22 $103 −$28 -27%
Zadar: Lukas Neumayer vs Nerman Fatic Mar 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Clippers vs. Pelicans: O/U 233.5 Mar 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Heat (-3.5) Mar 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Bucks (-4.5) Mar 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Pistons (-16.5) Mar 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: Saint Mary's Gaels (-2.5) Mar 20 $12 −$12 -100%
Magic vs. Hornets: O/U 226.5 Mar 20 $41 −$41 -100%
Spread: FC Midtjylland (-2.5) Mar 20 $1 $0 +2%
Spread: Bucks (-5.5) Mar 20 $1 +$1 +92%
Spread: Nebraska Cornhuskers (-13.5) Mar 20 $1 +$1 +107%
Lakers vs. Heat: O/U 240.5 Mar 20 $10 −$8 -75%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) Mar 20 $1 +$1 +100%
Zadar: Daniel Michalski vs Arthur Gea Mar 20 $3 $0 +16%
Suns vs. Spurs: O/U 225.5 Mar 20 $1 +$2 +117%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-03-19? Mar 20 $2 +$2 +92%
Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-2.5) Mar 20 $4 $0 +10%
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors vs. Arkansas Razorbacks: O/U 160.5 Mar 20 $3 +$3 +103%
Lakers vs. Heat: O/U 239.5 Mar 20 $4 +$3 +79%
Cavaliers vs. Bulls: O/U 240.5 Mar 20 $3 +$3 +104%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 6¢ $17 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 15¢ $203 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 15¢ $0 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 15¢ $3 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 15¢ $5 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 15¢ $14 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 26¢ $102 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $55 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 65¢ $66 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 80¢ $50 2h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 98¢ $39 2h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 88¢ $35 2h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 49¢ $102 4h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 59¢ $101 13h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 92¢ $177 28h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 52¢ $101 29h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 48¢ $48 29h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 56¢ $51 37h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners AND Mexico vs. Korea Republic: BUY 14¢ $10 42h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $51 43h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 52¢ $51 43h
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-22? SELL No 75¢ $2 89d
California Baptist Lancers vs. Kansas Jayhawks: O/U 138.5 BUY Over 55¢ $5 91d
Northern Iowa Panthers vs. St. John's Red Storm: O/U 131.5 BUY Over 54¢ $19 91d
Northern Iowa Panthers vs. St. John's Red Storm: O/U 131.5 BUY Under 48¢ $1 91d
Northern Iowa Panthers vs. St. John's Red Storm: O/U 131.5 BUY Under 48¢ $2 91d
Northern Iowa Panthers vs. St. John's Red Storm: O/U 131.5 BUY Under 46¢ $13 91d
Northern Iowa Panthers vs. St. John's Red Storm: O/U 131.5 BUY Under 48¢ $4 91d
Northern Iowa Panthers vs. St. John's Red Storm: O/U 131.5 BUY Over 55¢ $1 91d
Northern Iowa Panthers vs. St. John's Red Storm: O/U 131.5 BUY Over 53¢ $20 91d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 946 history records