Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:13:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa24d…38b2 sports 969 markets active 0h ago coverage 117d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$927 (+3%) realized +$954 · open −$27
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate30%287W / 675L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day17.9pace
Fees−$406est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$145now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 117d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% −$652
other 20% −$362
crypto 3% −$135
world 0% −$60
politics 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-21.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 +23.5% +11.8% 33% 33% +28.3%
≤30d 222 -4.6% -13.7% 27% 27% -16.4%
≤90d 883 -16.8% -24.7% 28% 27% -21.0%
all 962 -12.9% -21.2% 30% 29% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.2% 29% -12.4%
10% -28.7% 28% -20.8%
15% -35.6% 28% -28.5%
20% -41.9% 27% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$68 vs −$31 · ×2.22 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$145
Realized+$954
Unrealized−$27
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses287 / 675
Est. fees paid−$406
Open positions7
Markets (closed)962 / 969
History coverage117d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day17.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 962 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 36¢ $53 $71 +$18 (+33%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 14¢ 13¢ $21 $19 −$1 (-7%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+2%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 12¢ 6¢ $25 $14 −$11 (-46%)
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Milwaukee Brewers 40¢ 11¢ $40 $11 −$29 (-72%)
Switzerland leading at halftime? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 385 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $26 +$37 +139%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $25 +$27 +105%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $15 +$92 +596%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $36 +$85 +237%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $38 −$37 -99%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $26 −$25 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $7 −$7 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $38 −$37 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $25 +$33 +128%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $31 +$112 +366%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $20 +$35 +172%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 17 $36 +$73 +205%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 +$115 +1115%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $12 −$11 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $28 −$27 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $22 −$21 -98%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Nigeria vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi Jun 17 $38 −$37 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $22 −$21 -98%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $28 −$27 -97%
Austria vs. Jordan: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $26 −$26 -98%
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $36 +$50 +140%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $61 +$119 +194%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $21 −$21 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $36 −$35 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $25 −$25 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Team to Take First Corner Jun 15 $27 −$26 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 −$8 -41%
Will Málaga CF vs. UD Almería end in a draw? Jun 14 $41 +$84 +206%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $29 +$23 +77%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Team to Take First Corner Jun 14 $26 −$25 -98%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $66 −$10 -15%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $62 +$131 +211%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $34 −$33 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Draw at halftime? Jun 13 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $82 +$189 +231%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -97%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Málaga CF vs. UD Las Palmas end in a draw? Jun 10 $61 +$153 +249%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $32 −$31 -98%
UD Almería leading at halftime? Jun 09 $5 +$20 +397%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 4m
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 26¢ $15 5m
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $18 16m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $63 18m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $52 19m
Switzerland leading at halftime? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 31m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $25 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 12¢ $26 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 12¢ $15 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $36 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 41¢ $26 1h
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) BUY Milwaukee Brewers 40¢ $41 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? SELL Yes 100¢ $107 2h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $121 2h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 2h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 16¢ $8 2h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 16¢ $12 2h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $15 2h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 37¢ $15 2h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 3h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $36 4h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 12¢ $26 4h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 15¢ $7 4h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 4h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 45¢ $38 4h
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $58 23h
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 43¢ $25 24h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $143 25h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $55 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $145.01 · official $143.50 · 2412 history records