Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:44:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa24d…54a0 other 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 568d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$29 (+4%) realized +$29 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate8%2W / 24L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% +$29
politics 8% $0
other 6% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 2 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 26 +1.7% -8.0% 8% 4% -6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 4% -6.0%
10% -16.8% 4% -15.0%
15% -24.8% 4% -23.2%
20% -32.2% 4% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$0 · ×373.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×49.84 per $1 lost it wins $49.84
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

568d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses2 / 24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage568d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $9 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $8 $0 -1%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $10 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 26 $10 $0 -0%
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 11 $9 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 21 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 15 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 20 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Browns win the AFC Championship? Oct 24 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 23 $9 $0 -0%
Will PSV Eindhoven win the UEFA Champions League? Aug 19 $71 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will Club Brugge win the UEFA Champions League? Jul 12 $0 $0 -20%
Will the Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2025? Jun 11 $0 $0 +0%
Manchester United wins the Premier League? Jun 11 $0 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Falcons win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 09 $1 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2025? May 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will Na Kyung-won be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 15 $1 $0 +0%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche Apr 09 $36 +$29 +82%
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Feb 19 $1 $0 -15%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 04 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Blackhawks win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Dec 18 $0 $0 +0%
Will Sparta Prague win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 08 $0 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Nov 24 $373 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2025 NBA Finals? Nov 24 $135 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $9 1h
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $9 1h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 94¢ $8 24d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 94¢ $8 24d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $10 57d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $10 57d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 80d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 80d
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 99¢ $9 95d
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $9 95d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $10 114d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $10 116d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 100¢ $10 144d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $10 144d
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 99¢ $10 182d
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 99¢ $10 182d
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 95¢ $10 206d
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 95¢ $10 206d
Will the Browns win the AFC Championship? SELL No 100¢ $9 233d
Will the Browns win the AFC Championship? BUY No 100¢ $9 233d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 99¢ $9 264d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 99¢ $9 265d
Will the Browns win the AFC Championship? SELL Yes $1 299d
Will the Browns win the AFC Championship? SELL Yes $1 299d
Will the Browns win the AFC Championship? BUY Yes $1 299d
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? SELL Yes $1 337d
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? BUY Yes $1 337d
Will the Atlanta Falcons win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes $0 370d
Will the Atlanta Falcons win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes $1 370d
Will the Atlanta Falcons win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes $1 370d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 75 history records