Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:27:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa252…cf89 other 51 markets active 1h ago coverage 617d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$99 (+6%) realized +$138 · open −$39
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate26%12W / 35L
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$75now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$89
7 days−$23
14 days−$23
30 days−$51
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$14
sports 41% +$174
world 5% −$23
crypto 2% −$42
tech 1% −$17
politics 1% −$4
economics 0% −$3
weather 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-38.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -12.5% -20.9% 42% 33% -10.4%
≤30d 13 -19.3% -27.0% 38% 31% -13.5%
≤90d 34 -53.3% -57.7% 18% 15% -18.4%
all 47 -32.1% -38.5% 26% 23% -2.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.5% 23% -2.1%
10% -44.4% 19% -11.5%
15% -49.8% 13% -20.0%
20% -54.7% 11% -27.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 44% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late -34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$8 · ×3.99 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

617d coverage
Net worth$75
Realized+$138
Unrealized−$39
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses12 / 35
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)47 / 51
History coverage617d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: England (-1.5) Croatia 69¢ 50¢ $102 $74 −$28 (-28%)
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $20 +$31 +152%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $3 −$1 -45%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $215 −$113 -53%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $21 −$1 -3%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $177 +$46 +26%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $50 +$15 +29%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $20 −$15 -76%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $51 −$1 -2%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $178 +$7 +4%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $50 +$21 +42%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $29 −$28 -96%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 24 $7 −$3 -40%
Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch? Mar 23 $12 −$1 -8%
Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch? Mar 23 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs Mar 22 $73 −$5 -7%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Mar 22 $10 +$20 +194%
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 24-30? Mar 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin above $103,000 on June 24? Mar 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Fabric FDV above $800M one day after launch? Mar 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Mar 22 $2 −$2 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? Mar 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 9°C or below on March 14? Mar 22 $1 −$1 -100%
AFC U23 Final: China vs. Japan Mar 22 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 7°C on March 13? Mar 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $135K in September? Mar 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Will a team from LPL (China) win LoL Worlds 2025? Mar 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump resign today? Mar 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in September? Mar 22 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) Mar 22 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 01 $20 −$7 -33%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 01 $40 −$16 -40%
Fabric FDV above $300M one day after launch? Feb 28 $55 +$35 +64%
Fabric FDV above $200M one day after launch? Feb 28 $160 +$39 +24%
Fabric FDV above $400M one day after launch? Feb 27 $21 +$4 +20%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 01 $41 +$132 +321%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) Oct 31 $40 +$37 +92%
LoL: KT Rolster vs CTBC Flying Oyster - Game 1 Winner Oct 29 $99 +$14 +14%
Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 29 $9 $0 -5%
Israel withdraws from Gaza in 2025? Oct 29 $19 −$1 -3%
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026? Sep 17 $3 −$1 -20%
Will Trump resign in 2025? Sep 17 $7 −$2 -30%
Will the HBO documentary identify David Kleiman as Satoshi? Jun 24 $16 −$16 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Croatia 69¢ $103 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 44¢ $102 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 39¢ $20 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $20 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 91¢ $215 3h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 3h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 3h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 79¢ $177 2d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Japan 77¢ $50 3d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) SELL Curaçao 5¢ $4 3d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Curaçao 52¢ $50 3d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Curaçao 24¢ $20 3d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 51¢ $51 3d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $185 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 96¢ $178 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY 38¢ $51 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 22¢ $26 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 6d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $17 14d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $12 14d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 20d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $4 54d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $8 63d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 63d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 63d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 63d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $7 63d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 63d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $74.56 · official $74.56 (match) · 133 history records