Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:39:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa255…2ffc sports 989 markets active 1h ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$138 (+1%) realized +$88 · open +$50
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate41%387W / 567L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day20.7pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$808now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$159
7 days−$289
14 days−$96
30 days−$54
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 28% +$373
sports 25% −$170
world 15% −$43
other 11% +$15
weather 8% −$85
tech 4% −$14
politics 4% +$22
crypto 3% −$47
economics 1% +$12
culture 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 -22.7% -30.1% 25% 23% -34.7%
≤30d 139 -9.9% -18.5% 35% 33% -12.0%
≤90d 687 -3.8% -13.0% 40% 39% -6.9%
all 954 -5.5% -14.5% 41% 38% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.5% 38% -9.5%
10% ← realistic here -22.6% 35% -18.2%
15% -30.1% 32% -26.1%
20% -37.0% 29% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$4 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$808
Realized+$88
Unrealized+$50
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses387 / 567
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions30
Markets (closed)954 / 989
History coverage106d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day20.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 30 History 954 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 67¢ 93¢ $75 $104 +$29 (+39%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 54¢ 47¢ $91 $79 −$12 (-13%)
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026? No 70¢ 87¢ $59 $73 +$14 (+24%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? Yes 70¢ 78¢ $63 $70 +$6 (+10%)
Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026? No 63¢ 63¢ $55 $55 +$0 (+1%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? No 60¢ 62¢ $46 $47 +$2 (+3%)
Kash Patel out by December 31? No 46¢ 49¢ $43 $46 +$3 (+7%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No 56¢ 82¢ $26 $38 +$12 (+45%)
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? No 59¢ 68¢ $33 $38 +$5 (+14%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? No 47¢ 42¢ $42 $37 −$5 (-12%)
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026? No 55¢ 83¢ $24 $36 +$12 (+51%)
UK Recession in 2026? No 50¢ 66¢ $20 $27 +$7 (+33%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 43¢ 40¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-8%)
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $24 $21 −$3 (-12%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? Yes 38¢ 47¢ $15 $19 +$4 (+24%)
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? No 27¢ 20¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-27%)
Anthropic IPO before 2027? No 24¢ 21¢ $14 $12 −$2 (-13%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 59¢ 60¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+1%)
José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero sentenced to prison? Yes 16¢ 8¢ $21 $10 −$10 (-50%)
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 36¢ 36¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 30¢ 28¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 22¢ 18¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-19%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 17? Yes 25¢ 26¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+8%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 13¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-14%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 10¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 16? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 17 $1 −$1 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 17? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -61%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 16? Jun 16 $3 +$12 +463%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on June 16? Jun 16 $3 −$2 -61%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 16? Jun 16 $3 −$2 -64%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? Jun 16 $24 +$17 +70%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 16 $120 −$120 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 16 $5 +$6 +103%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 15 $7 −$3 -36%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? Jun 15 $16 −$1 -9%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 15 $7 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 15? Jun 15 $3 −$2 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -87%
Spain snap election called in 2026? Jun 15 $11 −$3 -25%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? Jun 15 $44 −$44 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? Jun 15 $5 −$1 -20%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 15 $44 +$14 +33%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $83 −$6 -7%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 15 $64 +$76 +118%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? Jun 15 $48 −$44 -92%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 15 $3 −$1 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -88%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 15 $20 +$19 +96%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Jun 14 $51 −$35 -70%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 14 $187 −$97 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -93%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 14 $4 −$2 -54%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 14 $4 −$1 -19%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 14 $7 +$6 +84%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 13? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -37%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 13 $37 −$37 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 13 $2 +$8 +406%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 13 $4 +$5 +112%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $48 +$42 +88%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 12 $3 −$2 -67%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $24 +$2 +7%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? Jun 12 $16 −$13 -77%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June? Jun 12 $25 −$20 -80%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 12 $10 +$9 +87%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 17? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 47m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY Yes 35¢ $2 49m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 17? BUY Yes 38¢ $3 51m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju SELL Yes 2¢ $0 52m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 17? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 13h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 17? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 13h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY Yes 14¢ $1 13h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY Yes 15¢ $1 13h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 17? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 13h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 13h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 17? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 13h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 16? SELL Yes 92¢ $15 13h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 16? BUY Yes 46¢ $3 13h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on June 16? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 13h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 16? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 13h
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? BUY No 23¢ $1 15h
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? BUY No 47¢ $6 15h
Anthropic IPO before 2027? BUY No 21¢ $3 15h
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? BUY No 44¢ $9 15h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 51¢ $21 16h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY Yes 33¢ $1 16h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? SELL Yes 95¢ $41 16h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 16? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 20h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06 BUY 1¢ $1 24h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? AN BUY 1¢ $1 24h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 16? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 24h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on June 16? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 24h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on June 16? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 24h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 16? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 24h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY Yes 39¢ $2 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $807.50 · official $808.60 (match) · 2716 history records