Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T01:38:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
A2 0xa259…6597 weather 1122 markets active 0h ago coverage 60d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$454 (+3%) realized +$457 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR70%break-even
Win rate72%798W / 310L
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day30.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$407now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$125
7 days−$1,581
14 days−$1,234
30 days−$228
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$265
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +70%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 219 -50.5% -55.2% 36% 34% -43.0%
≤30d 462 -6.3% -15.3% 69% 67% -12.0%
≤90d 1108 +0.1% -9.4% 72% 70% -7.8%
all 1108 +0.1% -9.4% 72% 70% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.4% 70% -7.8%
10% ← realistic here -18.1% 59% -16.6%
15% -26.0% 39% -24.7%
20% -33.2% 16% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$12 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$407
Realized+$457
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses798 / 310
Open positions14
Markets (closed)1108 / 1122
History coverage60d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day30.5
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 1108 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 20? No 64¢ 76¢ $29 $34 +$5 (+18%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 19? No 73¢ 84¢ $29 $33 +$4 (+14%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 19? No 71¢ 73¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 19? No 85¢ 89¢ $29 $30 +$1 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 20? No 78¢ 78¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 20? No 79¢ 80¢ $29 $30 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 19? No 61¢ 62¢ $29 $29 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 19? No 65¢ 65¢ $29 $29 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 20? No 83¢ 83¢ $29 $29 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 20? No 81¢ 79¢ $29 $28 −$1 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 19? No 69¢ 65¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 19? No 73¢ 66¢ $30 $27 −$3 (-9%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 19? No 62¢ 58¢ $28 $27 −$2 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 19? No 70¢ 49¢ $29 $21 −$9 (-30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 18? Jun 18 $30 +$3 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $30 +$10 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 18? Jun 18 $30 +$5 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $30 +$10 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $28 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 17? Jun 18 $30 +$13 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on June 17? Jun 18 $30 +$16 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 17? Jun 18 $30 +$13 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 17? Jun 18 $29 +$19 +63%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 18? Jun 17 $30 −$29 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $30 +$11 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $30 +$3 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $30 +$15 +52%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $29 +$16 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $31 +$5 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 18? Jun 17 $30 −$29 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 16? Jun 17 $30 +$12 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on June 16? Jun 17 $30 +$16 +53%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on June 16? Jun 17 $30 +$4 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 16? Jun 17 $29 +$9 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 18? Jun 16 $30 −$29 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $31 +$6 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $30 +$15 +50%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 18? Jun 16 $30 −$29 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $30 +$11 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $30 +$8 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $30 +$15 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $30 +$6 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $30 +$11 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 17? Jun 16 $30 −$29 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 18? Jun 16 $30 −$29 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? Jun 16 $29 +$8 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 17? Jun 16 $29 −$29 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 15? Jun 16 $28 +$10 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 16 $31 +$14 +46%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 16 $30 +$5 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 15? Jun 16 $30 +$10 +33%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 16 $30 +$16 +53%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 15? Jun 16 $29 +$27 +91%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 17? Jun 16 $30 −$30 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 17? Jun 16 $25 −$25 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $30 +$11 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $30 +$5 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $30 +$14 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 15? Jun 15 $30 +$3 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $28 +$10 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $30 +$12 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $30 +$12 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$2 +37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 20? BUY No 83¢ $29 2m
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 20? BUY No 81¢ $30 2m
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 20? BUY No 78¢ $30 13m
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 19? BUY No 65¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 19? BUY No 61¢ $29 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 19? BUY No 70¢ $30 3h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 20? BUY No 79¢ $30 5h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 19? BUY No 62¢ $29 9h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 20? BUY No 64¢ $29 14h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 19? BUY No 85¢ $29 15h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 19? BUY No 69¢ $30 16h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 19? BUY No 73¢ $30 16h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 19? BUY No 71¢ $30 16h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 19? BUY No 73¢ $30 21h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 73¢ $30 25h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 18? BUY No 66¢ $30 26h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 18? BUY No 63¢ $30 39h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 73¢ $30 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 63¢ $30 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 18? BUY No 85¢ $30 2d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on June 17? BUY No 63¢ $30 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 94¢ $28 2d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 18? BUY No 90¢ $30 2d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 65¢ $30 2d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 18? BUY No 64¢ $30 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 17? BUY No 68¢ $30 2d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 73¢ $30 2d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 17? BUY No 69¢ $30 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 85¢ $31 2d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 17? BUY No 60¢ $29 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $406.73 · official $406.79 (match) · 2929 history records