Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:09:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
A2 0xa25d…07e1 sports 68 markets active 0h ago coverage 248d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,125 (+27%) realized +$1,114 · open +$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate44%29W / 37L
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$42est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$126now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$62
7 days+$151
14 days−$321
30 days+$1,346
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% +$1,423
other 17% −$306
politics 1% −$4
world 1% −$3
crypto 0% +$2
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-5.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +17.8% +6.6% 64% 59% +14.8%
≤30d 37 +5.8% -4.3% 51% 49% +33.3%
≤90d 54 -7.3% -16.1% 43% 41% +11.2%
all 66 +4.9% -5.1% 44% 39% +14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.1% 39% +14.7%
10% -14.2% 39% +3.7%
15% -22.5% 38% -6.3%
20% -30.1% 32% -15.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 79% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$84 vs −$36 · ×2.32 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.82 per $1 lost it wins $1.82
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

248d coverage
Net worth$126
Realized+$1,114
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses29 / 37
Est. fees paid−$42
Open positions2
Markets (closed)66 / 68
History coverage248d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $65 $77 +$12 (+18%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $50 $49 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: New Zealand O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $14 −$14 -100%
France vs. Iraq: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $54 +$25 +47%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $49 −$49 -100%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 26 $61 +$39 +64%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 26 $37 −$36 -99%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $37 +$26 +70%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $20 +$14 +67%
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 1.5 AND Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $56 +$41 +74%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $56 +$1 +3%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $10 +$8 +76%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: New Zealand O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $8 +$6 +79%
New Zealand to score first vs. Egypt? Jun 22 $2 +$5 +249%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) Jun 21 $2 −$2 -83%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $5 +$4 +97%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $26 +$15 +59%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $30 +$43 +146%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $51 +$37 +73%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $18 +$13 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
NBA: Co-Rookie of the Year winners? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 19 $108 −$108 -100%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 19 $92 −$92 -100%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 19 $317 −$297 -94%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $8 +$6 +73%
Spread: Spurs (-20.5) Jun 14 $65 +$33 +51%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 220.5 Jun 11 $51 −$38 -75%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $781 −$33 -4%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 10 $279 −$69 -25%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5 Jun 06 $113 +$73 +65%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 06 $449 +$1,733 +386%
Will Aston Villa win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? May 21 $40 +$42 +104%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 05 $50 −$33 -66%
Will Cooper Flagg win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award? May 05 $44 +$18 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Apr 22 $2 +$2 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Apr 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 16 $71 −$7 -9%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 16 $177 −$71 -40%
Rams vs. Panthers Apr 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-01-11? Apr 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Packers vs. Bears Apr 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? Apr 14 $85 −$85 -100%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Apr 14 $163 −$163 -100%
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? Apr 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 56¢ $51 2m
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 79¢ $100 1h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 57¢ $17 3h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 47¢ $61 3h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 56¢ $20 3h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 58¢ $15 3d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 58¢ $37 3d
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $34 3d
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 59¢ $20 3d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $10 3d
France vs. Iraq: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 13¢ $5 4d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 57¢ $5 4d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: New Zealand O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $15 4d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: New Zealand O/U 1.5 BUY Over 28¢ $5 4d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $15 4d
New Zealand to score first vs. Egypt? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 4d
Spread: France (-2.5) SELL France 54¢ $48 5d
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 1.5 AND Spread: France (-2.5) BUY 57¢ $56 5d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 55¢ $51 5d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $34 5d
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 7¢ $0 5d
New Zealand to score first vs. Egypt? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 5d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: New Zealand O/U 0.5 BUY Over 55¢ $8 5d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 100¢ $9 5d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Under 100¢ $41 5d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Under 100¢ $79 5d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 15¢ $8 5d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 62¢ $26 5d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 50¢ $1 5d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 50¢ $3 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $126.03 · official $126.03 (match) · 236 history records