Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:10:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa265…1bb3 crypto 404 markets active 0h ago coverage 33d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$2,781 (-15%) realized −$3,742 · open −$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate30%119W / 284L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day22.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$97
7 days−$471
14 days−$3,638
30 days−$3,638
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$3,761
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-19.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 -31.0% -37.6% 29% 29% -43.0%
≤30d 346 -8.9% -17.6% 32% 31% -29.9%
≤90d 403 -10.9% -19.4% 30% 29% -29.5%
all 403 -10.9% -19.4% 30% 29% -29.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.4% 29% -29.5%
10% ← realistic here -27.1% 27% -36.2%
15% -34.1% 25% -42.4%
20% -40.6% 24% -48.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$35 · ×1.49 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,742
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses119 / 284
Open positions1
Markets (closed)403 / 404
History coverage33d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day22.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 403 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Down 26¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-98%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Down 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Down 21¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Down 42¢ 0¢ $150 $0 −$150 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - May 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - May 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Up 20¢ 0¢ $55 $0 −$55 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - May 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Down 17¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - May 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Up 12¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Down 24¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Down 30¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Down 21¢ 0¢ $274 $0 −$274 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - May 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Up 11¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - May 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Down 27¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Up 21¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Up 33¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Down 39¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Down 9¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Up 33¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - May 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Up 9¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $17 −$16 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $34 −$30 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$43 +408%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $17 −$14 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $17 +$16 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $16 +$21 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $21 +$6 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$9 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $15 −$14 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $24 +$21 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$13 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 13 $16 −$11 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 13 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 13 $16 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 13 $11 +$3 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 13 $13 −$12 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 13 $17 +$10 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 13 $8 +$8 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$18 +176%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 13 $18 −$17 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $7 +$11 +149%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 13 $6 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$4 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 13 $22 −$21 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 13 $37 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 13 $21 −$13 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 13 $19 +$22 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 13 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$11 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $13 −$12 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$7 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $31 −$16 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 10 $50 −$47 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 10 $41 −$10 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 10 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 10 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 10 $51 −$48 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $21 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $3 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $14 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Up 2¢ $3 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $10 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $21 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $3 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $54 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $11 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $8 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Down 5¢ $2 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $3 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $14 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $33 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $17 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 61¢ $37 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $16 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Down 14¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $11 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Up 63¢ $22 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $11 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $4 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $11 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Down 38¢ $29 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.38 · official $0.38 (match) · 773 history records