Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T18:31:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
A2 0xa266…67f7 sports 858 markets active 1h ago coverage 239d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$3,854 (-2%) realized −$3,855 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%270W / 583L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$181per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$935est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$491now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 239d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% +$4,694
other 16% −$2,309
world 0% +$930
crypto 0% −$250
economics 0% +$1
politics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +91.8% +73.5% 41% 41% +111.1%
≤30d 49 +77.7% +60.7% 41% 41% +105.5%
≤90d 189 +8.5% -1.8% 34% 34% +16.0%
all 853 -7.0% -15.9% 32% 32% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.9% 32% -7.6%
10% -23.9% 31% -16.5%
15% -31.3% 31% -24.5%
20% -38.0% 31% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -11% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$339 vs −$159 · ×2.13 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

239d coverage
Net worth$491
Realized−$3,855
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses270 / 583
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Est. fees paid−$935
Open positions3
Markets (closed)853 / 858
History coverage239d
Avg bet$181
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 853 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Over 26¢ $0 $259 +$259 (+0%)
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 16¢ $250 $176 −$74 (-30%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 11¢ $240 $55 −$185 (-77%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 497 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $1,019 +$1,684 +165%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $996 +$2,602 +261%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $512 −$512 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $1,003 −$1,003 -100%
Lamine Yamal: 2+ assists Jun 21 $205 $0 +0%
Ayase Ueda: 1+ goals Jun 21 $41 +$62 +153%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $490 +$1,110 +226%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $526 $0 +0%
Ange-Yoan Bonny: 1+ goals Jun 20 $215 $0 +0%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $315 +$1,225 +388%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $1,540 +$2,538 +165%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $96 +$938 +982%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $42 +$68 +162%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $953 $0 +0%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $41 $0 +0%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $499 $0 +0%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $497 $0 +0%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $509 $0 +0%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $508 $0 +0%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $546 +$470 +86%
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 17 $10 +$11 +109%
Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Sonego (+1.5) Jun 17 $493 $0 +0%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 $0 +0%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $622 +$494 +79%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $305 +$334 +109%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 14 $32 $0 +0%
Nico Schlotterbeck: 1+ goals Jun 14 $96 +$417 +434%
Jonathan Tah: 1+ goals Jun 14 $103 $0 +0%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 14 $480 +$546 +114%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $209 $0 +0%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $102 $0 +0%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $94 $0 +0%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1,106 +$1,752 +158%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Jun 11 $984 +$636 +65%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $102 $0 +0%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $1,031 +$2,032 +197%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 05 $700 +$372 +53%
Marta Kostyuk vs. Mirra Andreeva: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 04 $305 $0 +0%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) May 28 $528 $0 +0%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 4.5 May 27 $83 $0 +0%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 3.5 May 27 $154 $0 +0%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 2.5 May 27 $252 $0 +0%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 217.5 May 27 $1,056 +$1,024 +97%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 25 $85 −$4 -4%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $41 $0 +0%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 216.5 May 24 $515 +$541 +105%
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) May 23 $506 +$511 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 11¢ $246 1h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $256 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $506 5h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes $10 18h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 27¢ $996 20h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 37¢ $1,019 21h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 37¢ $1,003 22h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 1.5 BUY Over 17¢ $512 23h
Lamine Yamal: 2+ assists BUY Yes 13¢ $205 27h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists BUY Yes 44¢ $458 27h
Ayase Ueda: 1+ goals BUY Yes 40¢ $10 44h
Ayase Ueda: 1+ goals BUY Yes 40¢ $10 44h
Ayase Ueda: 1+ goals BUY Yes 38¢ $10 44h
Ayase Ueda: 1+ goals BUY Yes 37¢ $10 44h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 30¢ $490 45h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $526 47h
Ange-Yoan Bonny: 1+ goals BUY Yes 20¢ $215 47h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 11¢ $111 47h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 BUY Over $42 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Over $96 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 20¢ $315 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $1,540 2d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $953 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes $10 2d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $41 2d
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 38¢ $499 2d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $497 3d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $509 4d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $508 4d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $546 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $490.72 · official $519.01 · 1252 history records