Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:39:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa266…56fd other 258 markets active 4h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$76 (-0%) realized −$76 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%19W / 239L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$218per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$16
14 days−$28
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$42
sports 27% −$20
politics 8% −$11
culture 7% −$7
crypto 5% $0
economics 5% −$5
world 3% −$2
tech 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 65 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 183 -0.1% -9.7% 7% 0% -9.7%
all 258 -0.1% -9.7% 7% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 70% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$76
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses19 / 239
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)258 / 258
History coverage136d
Avg bet$218
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 258 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $683 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $564 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 16 $588 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $466 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $202 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $366 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $221 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $333 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $113 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 15 $538 −$2 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $356 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $133 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $301 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $230 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $65 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $416 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $206 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $267 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $691 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $143 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $454 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $145 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $133 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $317 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $66 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 10 $578 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $521 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $293 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $354 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $209 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $140 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 09 $171 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 09 $146 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 08 $266 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $282 −$3 -1%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 07 $452 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $257 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $69 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $331 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $170 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $719 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $254 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 05 $245 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $321 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $230 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $651 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $234 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 02 $256 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $428 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 02 $263 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $63 3h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $63 5h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $63 8h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $63 9h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $63 15h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $63 17h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $63 18h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $63 20h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $46 20h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $17 21h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $63 22h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $63 24h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $63 26h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $63 30h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $63 31h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $63 34h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $64 35h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $64 36h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $64 38h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $64 42h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $64 44h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $64 2d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $64 2d
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 100¢ $64 2d
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 100¢ $64 2d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $64 2d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $64 2d
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $64 2d
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $64 2d
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $64 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1386 history records