trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +0.0% | -9.5% | 0% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤30d | 11 | -3.1% | -12.4% | 36% | 0% | -10.9% |
| ≤90d | 11 | -3.1% | -12.4% | 36% | 0% | -10.9% |
| all | 29 | -1.0% | -10.4% | 34% | 0% | -9.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -10.4% | 0% | -9.9% |
| 10% | -19.0% | 0% | -18.5% |
| 15% | -26.8% | 0% | -26.4% |
| 20% | -34.0% | 0% | -33.6% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 51¢ | 54¢ | $44 | $47 | +$3 (+6%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 22 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | Jun 02 | $44 | $0 | +0% |
| Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? | Jun 02 | $2 | $0 | +8% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Jun 02 | $31 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | May 31 | $83 | −$3 | -4% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | May 30 | $3 | $0 | -11% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | May 30 | $40 | +$1 | +2% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | May 30 | $39 | +$1 | +2% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | May 29 | $40 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel closes its airspace by May 31? | May 28 | $10 | −$3 | -26% |
| Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | May 26 | $1 | $0 | -5% |
| Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? | Aug 05 | $10 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? | Jul 31 | $67 | $0 | -0% |
| Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? | Jul 30 | $7 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Fergus Finlay win the Irish Presidential Election? | Jul 30 | $68 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? | Jul 30 | $7 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Bertie Ahern win the Irish Presidential Election? | Jul 30 | $60 | +$1 | +1% |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Jul 29 | $67 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? | Jul 29 | $14 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Jul 29 | $59 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Manfred Reyes Villa win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? | Jul 29 | $9 | $0 | +4% |
| Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Jul 29 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? | Jul 29 | $7 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? | Jul 29 | $60 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump sell 1k-2.5k Gold Cards in 2025? | Jul 28 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? | Jul 28 | $60 | $0 | +0% |
| Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election | Jul 28 | $7 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by July 31? | Jul 28 | $66 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Trump meet with Elon Musk by July 31? | Jul 28 | $1 | $0 | +0% |