Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:02:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa26d…455c crypto 653 markets active 1h ago coverage 57d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$13 (+0%) realized +$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate42%277W / 375L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day31.7pace
Fees−$54est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$40
14 days+$63
30 days+$70
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 68% −$261
sports 31% −$60
other 1% −$8
world 0% −$10
politics 0% −$1
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-28.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -13.3% -21.6% 33% 33% +35.6%
≤30d 110 -23.5% -30.8% 46% 42% +2.3%
≤90d 652 -21.3% -28.8% 42% 37% -15.4%
all 652 -21.3% -28.8% 42% 37% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.8% 37% -15.4%
10% ← realistic here -35.6% 31% -23.5%
15% -41.8% 24% -30.9%
20% -47.5% 17% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses277 / 375
Est. fees paid−$54
Open positions1
Markets (closed)652 / 653
History coverage57d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day31.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 652 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 311 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +94%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $30 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $32 +$49 +156%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $91 −$7 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $94 $0 +0%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $107 +$38 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 05 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -95%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $104 −$6 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 03 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 03 $2 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 03 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 02 $2 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 02 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 02 $3 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 02 $3 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 02 $2 +$1 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 02 $3 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 02 $3 +$2 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 02 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 02 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 02 $2 +$1 +52%
BC Zenit vs. Lokomotiv Kuban Jun 01 $1 −$1 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Jil Teichmann May 31 $1 +$2 +186%
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shanghai Sharks May 31 $2 +$1 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $11 +$15 +136%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $10 +$13 +129%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 28 $1 −$1 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 26 $11 −$11 -98%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $7 +$5 +73%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $5 +$6 +119%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 22 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET May 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Up 81¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 66¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 16¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 61¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $30 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 26h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 94¢ $81 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $32 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 22¢ $10 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 27¢ $36 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 43¢ $20 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 59¢ $13 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 55¢ $51 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.04 · official $1.04 (match) · 1896 history records