Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:48:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa26f…e9bf crypto 1057 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 12d only
✗ bot/MM pace (210 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$676 (-7%) realized −$676 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate56%812W / 632L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day210.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,616
7 days−$1,739
14 days−$1,617
30 days−$1,617
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$44
politics 1% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (210 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-34.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1047 -40.3% -46.0% 48% 7% -27.0%
≤30d 1444 -27.0% -34.0% 56% 13% -20.5%
≤90d 1444 -27.0% -34.0% 56% 13% -20.5%
all 1444 -27.0% -34.0% 56% 13% -20.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover210.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -34.0% 13% -20.5%
10% ← realistic here -40.3% 6% -28.1%
15% -46.1% 5% -35.1%
20% -51.4% 4% -41.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -58% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$676
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses812 / 632
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1444 / 1057
History coverage12d ⚠
Avg bet$10
Trades / day210.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1444 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$4 +479%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $7 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $7 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $7 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $9 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $7 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $9 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records