Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:22:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa272…3f31 other 136 markets active 2h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,217 (+1%) realized +$1,217 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate10%14W / 122L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$1,608per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$20
14 days−$128
30 days−$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$86
politics 39% −$117
sports 5% +$1,326
culture 4% −$12
world 1% −$4
crypto 1% +$30
economics 1% −$2
tech 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 58 +2.0% -7.7% 10% 9% -9.6%
≤90d 132 +2.8% -7.0% 11% 9% -9.0%
all 136 +2.8% -7.0% 10% 9% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.0% 9% -9.1%
10% -15.9% 9% -17.8%
15% -24.1% 9% -25.7%
20% -31.5% 7% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 74% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,909) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$120 vs −$4 · ×26.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.06 per $1 lost it wins $3.06
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,217
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses14 / 122
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions0
Markets (closed)136 / 136
History coverage94d
Avg bet$1,608
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 136 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $2,267 −$4 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $566 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $430 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $1,869 −$2 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $885 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $856 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $1,037 −$2 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $1,855 −$2 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1,137 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $4,070 −$5 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 12 $3,876 −$6 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $4,017 −$4 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $4,265 −$7 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $699 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $947 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? Jun 09 $162 $0 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi Jun 09 $1,043 −$2 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $574 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $1,062 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $2,510 −$3 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $2,801 −$3 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $1,271 −$2 -0%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 07 $74 −$74 -100%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $1,234 −$2 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $1,293 −$2 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $1,047 −$2 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $76 +$52 +67%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $1,051 −$2 -0%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 Jun 04 $69 +$57 +83%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $2,097 −$3 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $2,674 −$3 -0%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May? Jun 02 $125 $0 +0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $2,224 −$3 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 01 $2,512 −$3 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 01 $1,069 −$1 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 31 $2,947 −$5 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $1,200 −$1 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 29 $1,038 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $3,606 −$4 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $2,762 −$3 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $2,037 −$3 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $3,429 −$4 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $1,186 −$2 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $6,476 −$9 -0%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $1,195 −$2 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $1,068 −$2 -0%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $55 +$68 +124%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $1,075 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $362 2h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $566 2h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $363 5h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $566 6h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $429 46h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $430 2d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $553 2d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $554 2d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $963 2d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $964 3d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $884 3d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $885 3d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $854 4d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $856 4d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,035 4d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,037 5d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $827 5d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $827 5d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,136 5d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,137 6d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $949 6d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $950 7d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $1,189 7d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $1,191 8d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $942 9d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $943 9d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,023 10d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,025 10d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $697 10d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $699 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 458 history records