trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Jun 14 | $57 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Jun 14 | $991 | −$2 | -0% |
| Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Jun 14 | $989 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 13 | $1,013 | −$1 | -0% |
| Will Hassan Shariatmadari be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | Jun 13 | $40 | $0 | -0% |
| Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | Jun 13 | $1,046 | −$1 | -0% |
| Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? | Jun 13 | $1,112 | −$2 | -0% |
| Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca | Jun 13 | $970 | −$1 | -0% |
| Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | May 17 | $1,050 | −$1 | -0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? | May 17 | $39 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | May 16 | $1,040 | −$2 | -0% |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | May 16 | $61 | −$1 | -1% |
| Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec | May 16 | $961 | −$1 | -0% |
| Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | May 16 | $1,980 | −$3 | -0% |
| Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | May 16 | $65 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | May 15 | $1,025 | −$1 | -0% |
| Will Mostafa Pourmohammadi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | May 15 | $955 | −$1 | -0% |
| Will Lithuania be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? | May 14 | $75 | $0 | -0% |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | May 14 | $1,014 | −$9 | -1% |
| Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | May 14 | $991 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Matthias Bluebaum win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? | Apr 04 | $166 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election | Apr 04 | $27 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Braga win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? | Apr 04 | $68 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Apr 01 | $131 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | Apr 01 | $46 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election | Apr 01 | $35 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Mar 27 | $120 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? | Mar 27 | $22 | $0 | -0% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 8 | -0.1% | -9.6% | 0% | 0% | -9.6% |
| ≤30d | 17 | -0.2% | -9.7% | 0% | 0% | -9.6% |
| ≤90d | 28 | -0.2% | -9.7% | 0% | 0% | -9.7% |
| all | 28 | -0.2% | -9.7% | 0% | 0% | -9.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -9.7% | 0% | -9.7% |
| 10% | -18.3% | 0% | -18.3% |
| 15% | -26.2% | 0% | -26.2% |
| 20% | -33.5% | 0% | -33.4% |