trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +0.5% | -9.1% | 100% | 0% | -9.1% |
| ≤30d | 2 | +0.4% | -9.1% | 100% | 0% | -9.1% |
| ≤90d | 4 | +0.3% | -9.3% | 100% | 0% | -9.3% |
| all | 20 | +0.5% | -9.1% | 100% | 0% | -9.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -9.1% | 0% | -9.2% |
| 10% | -17.8% | 0% | -17.9% |
| 15% | -25.7% | 0% | -25.8% |
| 20% | -33.0% | 0% | -33.1% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Xi Jinping purge Ding Xuexiang in 2026? | No | 91¢ | 95¢ | $5 | $5 | +$0 (+4%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? | Jun 19 | $21 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? | Jun 01 | $25 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? | Apr 23 | $28 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? | Apr 06 | $28 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? | Mar 24 | $30 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from February 23 to February 25, 20 | Mar 13 | $25 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026? | Feb 19 | $26 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 | Feb 05 | $28 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 | Jan 18 | $28 | $0 | +0% |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | Jan 04 | $13 | $0 | +4% |
| Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 20 | Jan 04 | $25 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 202 | Dec 21 | $27 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 20 | Dec 06 | $28 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 2025 | Nov 24 | $25 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 2025 | Nov 16 | $26 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,300 and $4,400 on November 3? | Nov 10 | $26 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,500 on October 30? | Nov 02 | $25 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,600 on October 26? | Oct 27 | $27 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,600 on October 21? | Oct 26 | $20 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,500 and $4,600 on October 16? | Oct 26 | $20 | $0 | +0% |