Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T16:38:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
A2 0xa275…a963 crypto 174 markets active 0h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$38 (+0%) realized +$38 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate99%171W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$258per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$418now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$7
14 days+$15
30 days+$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$64
world 0% −$31
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 46 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 148 -0.4% -9.9% 99% 0% -9.5%
all 173 -0.3% -9.8% 99% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$27 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.6 per $1 lost it wins $1.6
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$418
Realized+$38
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses171 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)173 / 174
History coverage138d
Avg bet$258
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 173 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana dip to $50 on June 25? No 100¢ 100¢ $418 $418 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $417 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 24? Jun 25 $409 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 24? Jun 25 $8 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $417 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 23? Jun 24 $202 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $60 on June 23? Jun 24 $214 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 23? Jun 23 $414 +$2 +1%
Will Solana dip to $65 on June 22? Jun 23 $413 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 22? Jun 22 $411 +$2 +0%
Will Solana reach $85 on June 21? Jun 22 $411 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 19? Jun 19 $401 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? Jun 18 $401 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 on June 17? Jun 18 $411 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 17? Jun 17 $410 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $80 on June 16? Jun 17 $384 +$2 +0%
Will Solana dip to $65 on June 16? Jun 17 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 16? Jun 16 $408 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $408 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 14? Jun 15 $407 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 14? Jun 14 $404 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 12? Jun 12 $405 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 11? Jun 12 $111 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 on June 11? Jun 12 $76 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $55 on June 11? Jun 12 $218 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 11? Jun 11 $404 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 10? Jun 10 $400 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 9? Jun 09 $403 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 8? Jun 09 $401 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 8? Jun 08 $401 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,450 on June 7? Jun 08 $394 +$4 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 7? Jun 07 $394 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $75 on June 6? Jun 07 $393 +$1 +0%
Will Solana dip to $55 on June 5? Jun 06 $391 +$4 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 5? Jun 05 $391 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 4? Jun 05 $388 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $387 +$1 +0%
Will Solana reach $85 on June 3? Jun 04 $386 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 3? Jun 03 $386 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 2? Jun 02 $386 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 1? Jun 01 $385 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 31? Jun 01 $384 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 30? May 30 $384 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 29? May 29 $383 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 28? May 28 $381 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 27? May 27 $381 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 26? May 26 $380 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 25? May 25 $379 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 on May 24? May 25 $191 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 on May 24? May 25 $186 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 24? May 24 $377 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana dip to $50 on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $418 21m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $417 8h
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $8 23h
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $409 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $417 32h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $202 43h
Will Solana dip to $60 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $214 43h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 23? BUY Yes 99¢ $414 2d
Will Solana dip to $65 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $413 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $411 3d
Will Solana reach $85 on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $411 4d
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $401 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $401 7d
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $411 7d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $410 8d
Will Solana dip to $65 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $20 8d
Will Solana reach $80 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $384 8d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $408 9d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $408 10d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $407 10d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $404 11d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $405 13d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $111 13d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $76 13d
Will Solana dip to $55 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $218 13d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $404 14d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $400 15d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $403 16d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $401 16d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $401 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $417.79 · official $417.79 (match) · 373 history records