Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:20:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
A2 0xa276…b8bc other 20 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$8 (+15%) realized +$10 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +67% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +29% what you keep after slip
Net edge+29%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate67%6W / 3L
Drawdown62%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day24.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$23now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% −$3
sports 25% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+51.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +67.1% +51.2% 67% 56% +21.2%
≤30d 9 +67.1% +51.2% 67% 56% +21.2%
≤90d 9 +67.1% +51.2% 67% 56% +21.2%
all 9 +67.1% +51.2% 67% 56% +21.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +51.2% 56% +21.2%
10% ← realistic here +36.7% 56% +9.6%
15% +23.5% 56% -1.0%
20% +11.4% 56% -10.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 62% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +34% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +67% · $-wt +34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.14 per $1 lost it wins $2.14
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$23
Realized+$10
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses6 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions11
Markets (closed)9 / 20
History coverage2d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day24.3
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 91¢ 92¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 41¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$2 +80%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 +$8 +262%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6 $0 +6%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -74%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 +$2 +194%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $6 +$3 +53%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 +$3 +272%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 28m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 28m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 60¢ $2 34m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 62¢ $2 37m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 41m
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 47m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $2 47m
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $2 55m
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 1h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? SELL Yes 63¢ $4 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $2 18h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 20h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 55¢ $3 20h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $6 23h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 23h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 23h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 99¢ $9 23h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 25h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 25h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 25h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $4 26h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 26h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $3 32h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 32h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 32h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 41¢ $2 32h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 32h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $3 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.81 · official $22.81 (match) · 38 history records