Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T03:28:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa276…dcfa sports 48 markets active 1h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$242 (-12%) realized −$241 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate50%22W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day7.1pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$109now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$38
7 days+$6
14 days−$181
30 days−$247
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$253
other 19% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-24.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -2.9% -12.2% 62% 46% -8.1%
≤30d 44 -16.8% -24.8% 50% 43% -21.7%
≤90d 44 -16.8% -24.8% 50% 43% -21.7%
all 44 -16.8% -24.8% 50% 43% -21.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.8% 43% -21.7%
10% -32.0% 32% -29.2%
15% -38.5% 20% -36.1%
20% -44.6% 7% -42.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$25 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$109
Realized−$241
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses22 / 22
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions4
Markets (closed)44 / 48
History coverage15d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day7.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $22 $22 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $48 +$24 +49%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $25 −$14 -56%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $35 +$7 +20%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $51 +$16 +32%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $61 +$5 +8%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $32 −$32 -99%
ITF Tauste: Anna Kubareva vs Elena Milovanovic Jun 19 $20 −$17 -85%
ITF Milano: Gianmarco Ferrari vs Fausto Tabacco Jun 19 $20 +$32 +158%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 19 $34 +$6 +17%
ITF Dinard: Marie Vogt vs Mia Slama Jun 19 $20 +$10 +48%
ITF Mungia-Laukariz: Sergi Perez Contri vs Izan Almazan Valiente Jun 19 $26 −$17 -63%
ITF Lourinha: Tiago Torres vs John Echeverria Jun 19 $20 −$14 -70%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon Jun 19 $25 +$1 +5%
Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 16 $30 +$7 +24%
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz Jun 16 $30 +$24 +78%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 16 $35 −$9 -26%
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 16 $30 −$30 -99%
ITF Decatur: Madison Brengle vs Lea Ma Jun 14 $32 −$27 -84%
ITF Nice: Clara Burel vs Jenny Lim Jun 14 $30 +$8 +26%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt Jun 14 $111 −$1 -1%
Halle Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Jun 14 $35 −$35 -98%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lulu Sun vs Anhelina Kalinin Jun 14 $36 −$26 -74%
ITF Zagreb: Iva Primorac vs Elina Avanesyan Jun 13 $30 +$6 +21%
ITF kiseljak: Yaroslav Demin vs Andrey Chepelev Jun 13 $30 +$6 +20%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 12 $36 −$30 -86%
Bratislava: Petr Brunclik vs Vitaliy Sachko Jun 12 $58 −$57 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $46 −$19 -43%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 11 $50 +$21 +42%
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexander Bublik Jun 10 $36 −$28 -80%
Libema Open: Martin Damm vs Alex de Minaur Jun 10 $35 +$5 +16%
ITF Tokyo: Hikaru Shiraishi vs Leo Vithoontien Jun 10 $61 +$29 +47%
ITF Los Angeles: Jack Satterfield vs Spencer Johnson Jun 09 $102 +$6 +6%
ITF Los Angeles: Lucca Liu vs Vignesh Gogineni Jun 09 $46 −$23 -50%
ITF Cuiaba: Catarina Melleiro vs Marian Gomez Pezuela Cano Jun 09 $35 +$16 +44%
ITF Wichita: Justin Boulais vs Ozan Baris Jun 09 $30 −$25 -83%
Libema Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 09 $97 −$22 -23%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Polina Kudermetova Jun 09 $70 +$18 +26%
Cattolica: Miguel Tobon vs Alexander Vasilev Jun 09 $40 −$40 -100%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Maddison Inglis Jun 09 $56 +$13 +24%
Cattolica: Petr Nesterov vs Marco Cecchinato Jun 09 $45 +$17 +38%
Ilkley: Kayla Day vs Mary Stoiana Jun 09 $41 −$25 -61%
Lyon: Calvin Hemery vs Alejandro Moro Canas Jun 09 $36 +$34 +94%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 09 $35 −$35 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 59¢ $25 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $22 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $25 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 73¢ $38 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $11 5h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 37¢ $11 5h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 67¢ $7 9h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $42 9h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 79¢ $54 22h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 23h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $30 23h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 82¢ $25 23h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $35 23h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 28¢ $13 23h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $30 24h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 81¢ $36 33h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $30 43h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 64¢ $30 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $32 2d
ITF Tauste: Anna Kubareva vs Elena Milovanovic SELL Elena Milovanovic $3 4d
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina SELL Tommy Paul 84¢ $40 4d
ITF Mungia-Laukariz: Sergi Perez Contri vs Izan Almazan Valiente SELL Sergi Perez Contri 11¢ $0 4d
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Tommy Paul 70¢ $9 4d
ITF Mungia-Laukariz: Sergi Perez Contri vs Izan Almazan Valiente SELL Sergi Perez Contri 22¢ $10 4d
ITF Mungia-Laukariz: Sergi Perez Contri vs Izan Almazan Valiente BUY Sergi Perez Contri 44¢ $6 4d
ITF Lourinha: Tiago Torres vs John Echeverria SELL John Echeverria $6 4d
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon SELL Alexander Zverev 91¢ $26 4d
ITF Lourinha: Tiago Torres vs John Echeverria BUY John Echeverria 29¢ $20 4d
ITF Milano: Gianmarco Ferrari vs Fausto Tabacco BUY Fausto Tabacco 38¢ $20 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $109.15 · official $109.15 (match) · 120 history records