Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:49:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
A2 0xa276…2613 crypto 995 markets active 2h ago coverage 104d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 103d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,725 (-3%) realized −$1,838 · open +$113
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate47%580W / 646L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day26.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$313now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,522
7 days−$2,598
14 days−$2,615
30 days−$2,616
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$789
other 4% +$41
world 2% +$103
finance 2% +$73
weather 1% −$29
sports 0% +$37
culture 0% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 288 -77.3% -79.5% 10% 9% -73.4%
≤30d 334 -69.2% -72.1% 15% 12% -49.6%
≤90d 1082 -0.7% -10.2% 46% 25% -14.1%
all 1226 -2.1% -11.4% 47% 25% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.4% 25% -13.7%
10% ← realistic here -19.9% 22% -22.0%
15% -27.6% 19% -29.5%
20% -34.7% 15% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +37% → late -41% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$9 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$313
Realized−$1,838
Unrealized+$113
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses580 / 646
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1226 / 995
History coverage104d ⚠
Avg bet$66
Trades / day26.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1226 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $200 $313 +$113 (+57%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 18, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 25, 9PM ET Jun 17 $25 −$18 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$8 -719%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$4 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 4PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$5 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 12PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 9, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 10? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 20, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 10? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 25, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 17, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 3d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $51 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $313.33 · official $313.33 (match) · 3500 history records