Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:31:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa277…4a70 politics 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%1W / 38L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$429per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$12
14 days−$12
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 28% −$5
other 22% −$5
world 13% −$2
culture 13% −$4
sports 8% −$2
economics 8% −$2
crypto 7% −$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -0.1% -9.6% 7% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 17 -0.2% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 39 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
all 39 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$958) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses1 / 38
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)39 / 39
History coverage76d
Avg bet$429
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 39 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $47 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $20 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $1,274 −$2 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 16 $70 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $1,263 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $1,268 −$3 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $1,282 −$2 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $69 $0 -0%
Will Memphis Grizzlies win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 16 $13 $0 -0%
Will Nasir Hosseini be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 15 $1,212 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $71 $0 +0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $1,295 −$2 -0%
Will Mohammad Khatami be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 14 $14 $0 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 14 $1,242 −$2 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $81 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Falcons win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 22 $35 $0 -0%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 22 $25 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $27 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior finish in third place in the first ro May 18 $23 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 17 $67 $0 -0%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in another EU country? May 17 $19 $0 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec May 17 $928 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $983 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 16 $960 −$2 -0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 16 $21 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? May 16 $958 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 15 $888 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $72 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 15 $899 $0 +0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 15 $911 −$1 -0%
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 09 $148 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 09 $49 $0 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Apr 09 $22 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 06 $135 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 06 $20 $0 -0%
Will Navid Shomali be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Apr 06 $59 $0 -0%
Will Beth Van Duyne win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Apr 02 $162 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 02 $26 $0 -0%
Will Sahith Theegala win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 02 $92 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $47 1h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $21 1h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $13 1h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $8 1h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $25 2h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $20 2h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,272 21h
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $69 21h
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $19 21h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $1,229 21h
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $23 21h
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 22h
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $234 22h
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $28 22h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $12 22h
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $694 23h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $32 23h
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $238 23h
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $333 23h
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $1,268 23h
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,281 36h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $69 36h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $22 36h
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,242 36h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $21 37h
Will Memphis Grizzlies win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $13 37h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $26 37h
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $21 37h
Will Nasir Hosseini be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,210 37h
Will Memphis Grizzlies win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $13 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 124 history records