Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T15:01:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa277…ea05 other 46 markets active 2h ago coverage 42d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$11 (-1%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate16%7W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 42d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 94% −$27
world 6% −$67
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-45.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +23.6% +11.8% 30% 30% +10.8%
≤30d 40 -60.2% -64.0% 8% 8% -18.9%
≤90d 45 -40.0% -45.7% 16% 16% -14.3%
all 45 -40.0% -45.7% 16% 16% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -45.7% 16% -14.3%
10% -50.9% 13% -22.5%
15% -55.6% 11% -30.0%
20% -60.0% 11% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -40% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -42% → late -38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$69 vs −$15 · ×4.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses7 / 38
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)45 / 46
History coverage42d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 45 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? Jun 27 $31 +$150 +487%
Will Finland be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? Jun 27 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Italy be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026? Jun 27 $15 −$6 -38%
Will Bulgaria come in 2nd place at Eurovision 2026? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $144 −$1 -0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $282 −$80 -28%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $282 +$78 +28%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $144 +$170 +118%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $144 −$43 -30%
Will France be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? Jun 13 $20 −$8 -38%
Will Poland be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ukraine be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Finland come in 2nd place at Eurovision 2026? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Moldova be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Greece be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Romania be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Israel be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Finland be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Finland win the televote for Eurovision 2026? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bulgaria be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? Jun 13 $21 −$9 -45%
Will Bulgaria be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Croatia be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Australia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Australia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? Jun 13 $31 −$6 -20%
Will Israel be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? Jun 13 $31 −$21 -67%
Will Moldova come in 2nd place at Eurovision 2026? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Finland be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Jun 13 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? Jun 13 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? Jun 13 $62 −$45 -72%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? Jun 13 $167 −$2 -1%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Jun 13 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Bulgaria be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Norway be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $10 +$1 +14%
Will Ukraine win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 16 $10 $0 -0%
Will Denmark be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $10 +$6 +62%
Will Finland be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $10 +$33 +315%
Will Bulgaria win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 16 $21 +$45 +218%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $143 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $202 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 22¢ $360 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $314 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $101 1h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) AND Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY 5¢ $2 6d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $41 12d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $41 12d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $41 12d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $77 12d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $77 12d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 12d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 12d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 12d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 12d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 12d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 12d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 12d
Will Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $9 41d
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $11 41d
Will Israel be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 41d
Will Norway be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $11 41d
Will Ukraine win the televote for Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 41d
Will France be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $13 41d
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $17 41d
Will Australia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? SELL No 100¢ $25 41d
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $165 41d
Will Denmark be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? SELL No 97¢ $17 41d
Will Finland be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? SELL No 98¢ $43 41d
Will Bulgaria win the televote for Eurovision 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $66 41d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 145 history records