Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T10:53:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A2
0xa278…fb03
crypto · 34 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$278 -81%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$281 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$14
Realized−$281
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses22 / 11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage60d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 33 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$281
7 days−$281
14 days−$281
30 days−$281
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 87¢ 90¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+3%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Up 62¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Up 77¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Up 83¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Down 64¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$2 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$3 +331%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 13 $96 −$91 -95%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 13 $192 −$182 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 88% −$273
crypto 12% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 89¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -5.6% -14.6% 67% 36% -86.8%
≤30d 33 -5.6% -14.6% 67% 36% -86.8%
≤90d 33 -5.6% -14.6% 67% 36% -86.8%
all 33 -5.6% -14.6% 67% 36% -86.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 36% -86.8%
10% -22.8% 18% -88.1%
15% -30.2% 12% -89.2%
20% -37.1% 12% -90.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.31 · official $14.31 (match) · 90 history records