Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T16:40:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa27c…ab67 sports 541 markets active 21h ago coverage 64d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 64d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$19,500 (-4%) realized −$19,500 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate64%348W / 193L
Whale WR65%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$979per market
Trades / day48.3pace
Fees−$5,876est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 64d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$1,062
crypto 0% +$101
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)-6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 +11.5% +0.9% 66% 64% -8.4%
≤30d 234 +8.5% -1.8% 65% 65% -6.2%
≤90d 541 +3.6% -6.3% 64% 63% -9.7%
all 541 +3.6% -6.3% 64% 63% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover48.3 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.3% 63% -9.7%
10% -15.3% 58% -18.3%
15% ← realistic here -23.4% 48% -26.2%
20% -30.9% 33% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 65% (≥$1,247) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$535 vs −$969 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$19,500
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses348 / 193
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Est. fees paid−$5,876
Open positions0
Markets (closed)541 / 541
History coverage64d ⚠
Avg bet$979
Trades / day48.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 541 Trades
no open positions (132 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $2,218 +$1,782 +80%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $2,379 −$2,350 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $3,959 −$3,930 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $1,885 +$1,758 +93%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $2,619 +$2,381 +91%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $1,766 +$125 +7%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $3,246 −$3,230 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $1,137 +$473 +42%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $1,305 +$695 +53%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $2,297 +$1,703 +74%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2,538 +$1,460 +58%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $1,450 −$1,450 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $2,429 +$1,569 +65%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $2,549 +$1,449 +57%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $1,953 −$1,930 -99%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $686 +$314 +46%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2,389 −$2,360 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $1,139 −$1,130 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1,081 −$505 -47%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $561 +$949 +169%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $1,964 −$1,950 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $2,160 +$1,340 +62%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $1,208 +$504 +42%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $1,311 −$1,289 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $3,185 +$1,815 +57%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $1,155 +$845 +73%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $1,234 +$766 +62%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $1,840 +$660 +36%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $1,568 −$1,550 -99%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $1,248 +$750 +60%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $1,131 −$1,110 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $2,470 +$2,245 +91%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $2,874 +$1,124 +39%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $4,397 −$4,362 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $2,437 −$2,400 -98%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group S Jun 11 $2,209 +$1,291 +58%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs G2 Ares - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $2,997 +$1,131 +38%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - The International Europe Op Jun 10 $833 +$429 +52%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs G2 Ares - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $330 −$330 -100%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $35 +$9 +26%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $659 +$316 +48%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $680 +$320 +47%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $620 +$1,380 +223%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 10 $1,215 +$1,285 +106%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $1,492 +$508 +34%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 09 $1,234 +$766 +62%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $687 +$331 +48%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $1,583 +$1,417 +90%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $485 −$480 -99%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $493 −$488 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 59¢ $1,195 21h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 59¢ $597 21h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 58¢ $587 21h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 67¢ $222 22h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 67¢ $23 22h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 67¢ $5 22h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 67¢ $62 22h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 67¢ $100 22h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 67¢ $2 22h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 67¢ $109 22h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 67¢ $146 22h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 66¢ $3 22h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 66¢ $5 22h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 66¢ $3 22h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 66¢ $3 22h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 66¢ $20 22h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 66¢ $20 22h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 66¢ $24 22h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 66¢ $34 22h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 66¢ $49 22h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 66¢ $63 22h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 66¢ $96 22h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 66¢ $15 22h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 66¢ $144 22h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 66¢ $120 22h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 66¢ $10 22h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 66¢ $52 22h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 65¢ $1,314 22h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 65¢ $1,314 22h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 55¢ $843 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records