Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T02:37:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
A2 0xa27e…725c sports 1689 markets active 0h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 107d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$54 (+0%) realized +$54 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate99%1665W / 22L
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day17.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$4
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% +$76
weather 17% +$15
other 16% +$14
finance 2% +$2
crypto 2% +$1
tech 1% +$1
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 191 +0.1% -9.4% 97% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 1384 +0.1% -9.5% 99% 0% -9.5%
all 1687 +0.1% -9.4% 99% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 37% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×5.14 per $1 lost it wins $5.14
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized+$54
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses1665 / 22
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1687 / 1689
History coverage107d ⚠
Avg bet$49
Trades / day17.1
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1687 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will Hannes Steinbach be the 5th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 Jun 24 $50 $0 +0%
Arcium FDV above $400M one day after launch? Jun 23 $50 $0 +0%
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $50 $0 +0%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 23 $50 $0 +0%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Hayu Kinoshita vs Viktoriya Tomova Jun 23 $50 $0 +0%
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. LG Twins Jun 23 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $50 $0 +0%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 22 $50 $0 +0%
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 22 $50 $0 +0%
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 22 $50 $0 +0%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $50 $0 +0%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Lamine Yamal: 2+ assists Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 1.5 Corners Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs K27 (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Qua Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Neither team to score first? Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Brahim Díaz: 1+ goals Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Valorant: YFP Gaming vs NRG Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on June 18? Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Will Tomáš Macháč be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Ivan Perišić: 1+ goals Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Portugal to win the second half? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Svyatoslav Gulin Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will Cursor be acquired before 2027? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 14m
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 100¢ $50 1h
Will Hannes Steinbach be the 5th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? BUY No 100¢ $50 2h
Arcium FDV above $400M one day after launch? BUY No 100¢ $50 6h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY No 100¢ $50 7h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Hayu Kinoshita vs Viktoriya Tomova BUY Hayu Kinoshita 100¢ $50 8h
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. LG Twins BUY LG Twins 100¢ $1 13h
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. LG Twins BUY LG Twins 100¢ $49 14h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 100¢ $50 31h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY No 100¢ $50 31h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 100¢ $50 2d
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 2d
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 100¢ $50 2d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 100¢ $50 2d
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 2d
Lamine Yamal: 2+ assists BUY No 100¢ $50 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 1.5 Corners BUY Under 100¢ $50 2d
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs K27 (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Qua BUY K27 100¢ $50 2d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 100¢ $50 2d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 3d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 BUY Under 100¢ $50 3d
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 100¢ $50 3d
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 100¢ $50 3d
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $50 3d
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 100¢ $50 3d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 100¢ $50 4d
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY New York Yankees 100¢ $50 4d
Brahim Díaz: 1+ goals BUY No 100¢ $50 4d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner BUY Paper Rex 100¢ $50 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.95 · official $99.95 (match) · 3500 history records