Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:24:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa282…4697 crypto 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$13 (-24%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%13W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$4
14 days−$14
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-33.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -16.2% -24.2% 40% 40% -29.9%
≤30d 35 -26.1% -33.2% 37% 37% -33.4%
≤90d 35 -26.1% -33.2% 37% 37% -33.4%
all 35 -26.1% -33.2% 37% 37% -33.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.2% 37% -33.4%
10% -39.6% 31% -39.8%
15% -45.4% 29% -45.6%
20% -50.8% 23% -51.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses13 / 22
Open positions0
Markets (closed)35 / 35
History coverage15d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 35 Trades
no open positions (21 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +189%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$2 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$1 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +56%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 08 $2 −$1 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 05 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 04 $1 +$1 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 04 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 03 $1 +$3 +271%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 03 $2 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 02 $2 +$1 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 02 $2 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 01 $2 −$1 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 01 $2 $0 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $4 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 69¢ $3 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Down 81¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Down 87¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 3d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Up 66¢ $1 3d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 68 history records