Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:38:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
A2 0xa282…8700 sports 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$227 (+12%) realized +$267 · open −$40
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate100%5W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$192per market
Trades / day10.4pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$328now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% +$264
other 12% −$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+5.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +16.4% +5.3% 100% 60% +6.0%
≤30d 5 +16.4% +5.3% 100% 60% +6.0%
≤90d 5 +16.4% +5.3% 100% 60% +6.0%
all 5 +16.4% +5.3% 100% 60% +6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.3% 60% +6.0%
10% -4.8% 40% -4.1%
15% -14.0% 0% -13.4%
20% -22.4% 0% -21.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 71% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% too few recent
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$53 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$328
Realized+$267
Unrealized−$40
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses5 / 0
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions5
Markets (closed)5 / 10
History coverage2d
Avg bet$192
Trades / day10.4
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Uruguay (-3.5) Cabo Verde 92¢ 92¢ $92 $92 −$1 (-1%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $80 $77 −$3 (-3%)
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 13¢ 8¢ $95 $58 −$36 (-38%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? No 85¢ 84¢ $51 $51 −$0 (-1%)
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Under 89¢ 88¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 21 $182 +$43 +24%
Spread: Spain (-5.5) Jun 21 $456 +$144 +32%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $251 +$21 +8%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $251 +$27 +11%
Spread: United States (-3.5) Jun 19 $401 +$29 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Uruguay (-3.5) BUY Cabo Verde 92¢ $92 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 85¢ $51 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 89¢ $50 1h
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 13¢ $5 2h
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 13¢ $103 3h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY IR Iran 80¢ $101 3h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY IR Iran 80¢ $81 3h
Spread: Spain (-5.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 70¢ $117 5h
Spread: Spain (-5.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 70¢ $14 5h
Spread: Spain (-5.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 70¢ $1 5h
Spread: Spain (-5.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 78¢ $456 5h
Spread: Spain (-5.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 78¢ $1 5h
Spread: Spain (-5.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 78¢ $2 5h
Spread: Spain (-5.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 78¢ $2 5h
Spread: Spain (-5.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 78¢ $7 5h
Spread: Spain (-5.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 55¢ $203 6h
Spread: Spain (-5.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 59¢ $253 6h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $82 24h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 90¢ $251 25h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 92¢ $251 26h
Spread: United States (-3.5) BUY Australia 93¢ $401 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $328.05 · official $332.62 · 25 history records