trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 3 | +0.7% | -8.9% | 67% | 0% | -8.6% |
| ≤90d | 3 | +0.7% | -8.9% | 67% | 0% | -8.6% |
| all | 22 | -2.8% | -12.1% | 64% | 9% | -8.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -12.1% | 9% | -8.5% |
| 10% | -20.5% | 5% | -17.3% |
| 15% | -28.2% | 5% | -25.3% |
| 20% | -35.2% | 5% | -32.6% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | No | 87¢ | 87¢ | $31 | $31 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma | May 26 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | May 26 | $31 | +$1 | +2% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | May 24 | $31 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Ethereum reach $4000 in June? | Dec 13 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy before July? | Jun 27 | $6 | $0 | +4% |
| Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? | Jun 26 | $10 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in May? | May 25 | $6 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2025 French Open? | May 24 | $6 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | May 22 | $4 | −$1 | -30% |
| Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? | May 19 | $7 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Iceland finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? | May 19 | $3 | +$3 | +98% |
| Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec | May 19 | $7 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Susan Crawford win by 10% or more? | May 17 | $14 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Real Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? | Apr 18 | $2 | $0 | +12% |
| Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? | Mar 30 | $2 | $0 | -12% |
| Will Elon tweet 325-349 times March 21-28? | Mar 28 | $12 | +$1 | +6% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 53°F or below on March 23? | Mar 22 | $1 | −$1 | -50% |
| Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2025 China Grand Prix? | Mar 22 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $79000 and $81000 on Mar 21? | Mar 20 | $14 | $0 | -1% |
| Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Mar 19 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Club Brugge or Aston Villa advance in the UCL Round of 16? | Mar 13 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will Southampton win on 2025-03-08? | Mar 11 | $15 | +$1 | +4% |