Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:47:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa289…d95c other 349 markets active 0h ago coverage 571d
TRAPdo not copy
Total PnL +$12,526 (+1%) realized +$3,631 · open +$4,211
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate72%234W / 90L
Whale WR84%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,108per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Fees−$76est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$75,374now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$672
7 days+$716
14 days+$1,574
30 days+$3,090
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 33% −$6,440
world 30% +$7,797
politics 26% +$6,055
crypto 6% +$339
economics 2% +$844
culture 1% +$126
finance 1% −$439
sports 1% +$157
tech 0% −$599
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -6.0% -15.0% 75% 75% +4.0%
≤30d 22 -6.5% -15.4% 64% 23% -6.8%
≤90d 83 -3.2% -12.4% 72% 22% -7.3%
all 324 -1.9% -11.2% 72% 19% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.2% 19% -9.2%
10% ← realistic here -19.7% 9% -17.9%
15% -27.5% 3% -25.8%
20% -34.6% 2% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 84% (≥$3,066) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$154 vs −$369 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

571d coverage
Net worth$75,374
Realized+$3,631
Unrealized+$4,211
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses234 / 90
Whale WR (big bets)84%
Est. fees paid−$76
Open positions25
Markets (closed)324 / 349
History coverage571d
Avg bet$3,108
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 25 History 324 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 97¢ 99¢ $18,533 $18,791 +$259 (+1%)
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? No 94¢ 99¢ $13,026 $13,727 +$701 (+5%)
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 97¢ 100¢ $5,584 $5,741 +$157 (+3%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 79¢ 92¢ $4,120 $4,810 +$690 (+17%)
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Yes 87¢ 86¢ $4,676 $4,611 −$64 (-1%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 92¢ 99¢ $3,128 $3,376 +$248 (+8%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 72¢ 82¢ $2,594 $2,956 +$362 (+14%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 90¢ 94¢ $2,480 $2,599 +$119 (+5%)
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? No 63¢ 87¢ $1,751 $2,415 +$663 (+38%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 92¢ 98¢ $2,024 $2,153 +$129 (+6%)
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? No 87¢ 83¢ $2,181 $2,075 −$106 (-5%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 94¢ 98¢ $1,880 $1,953 +$73 (+4%)
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? No 92¢ 95¢ $1,760 $1,817 +$57 (+3%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No 84¢ 92¢ $1,428 $1,556 +$128 (+9%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? No 62¢ 84¢ $1,112 $1,504 +$392 (+35%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 92¢ 99¢ $1,380 $1,481 +$101 (+7%)
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 89¢ 94¢ $1,335 $1,402 +$68 (+5%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No 86¢ 84¢ $1,030 $1,008 −$22 (-2%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? No 32¢ 30¢ $480 $442 −$37 (-8%)
Iran coup attempt by June 30? No 64¢ 98¢ $256 $394 +$138 (+54%)
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 Yes 38¢ 74¢ $114 $222 +$108 (+95%)
Iran Nuke before 2027? No 88¢ 93¢ $158 $167 +$8 (+5%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 45¢ 62¢ $90 $125 +$35 (+39%)
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? No 10¢ 12¢ $38 $46 +$8 (+20%)
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 14 $2,030 +$219 +11%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $2,572 +$554 +22%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$44 +44%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $9,087 +$163 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 03 $10,618 +$52 +0%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? Jun 01 $3,500 +$133 +4%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $6,422 +$323 +5%
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 202 Jun 01 $5,064 +$186 +4%
Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026? May 29 $1,005 +$2 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 28 $2,182 −$927 -42%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? May 26 $300 −$12 -4%
Will 0 world records be broken at the 2026 Enhanced Games? May 25 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? May 24 $780 −$240 -31%
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026 May 24 $970 −$39 -4%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 24 $968 −$68 -7%
Trump kiss by May 31? May 20 $383 +$136 +36%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 20 $6,558 +$233 +4%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 19 $1,848 +$82 +4%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 16 $44,497 +$2,063 +5%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 16 $1,241 −$119 -10%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 16 $3,045 +$455 +15%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 14 $503 −$497 -99%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? May 14 $1,591 −$576 -36%
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? May 14 $1,677 +$284 +17%
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? May 14 $1,741 +$9 +0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 10 $11,852 +$104 +1%
Epstein suicide note released by May 8? May 09 $992 −$22 -2%
Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1480? May 08 $815 −$607 -74%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 04 $7,512 +$1,223 +16%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 02 $497 +$3 +1%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30? May 02 $484 +$16 +3%
Will Canada send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 20 May 02 $689 +$15 +2%
Netanyahu out by April 30? May 02 $1,440 +$60 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? May 02 $2,460 +$38 +2%
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2 May 02 $3,842 +$50 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 02 $13,075 +$406 +3%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 24th? Apr 25 $134 +$1 +1%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 25 $5,434 +$451 +8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 21 $500 −$180 -36%
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? Apr 15 $5,235 −$922 -18%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? Apr 14 $1,611 +$126 +8%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 12, 2026? Apr 13 $1,468 +$32 +2%
Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026? Apr 12 $701 +$19 +3%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 12 $1,090 +$230 +21%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 12 $2,440 +$10 +0%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? Apr 11 $693 +$77 +11%
Will Vance visit the Middle East by April 10? Apr 11 $463 +$37 +8%
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10? Apr 11 $4,166 +$34 +1%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 09 $3,692 −$1,569 -42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $835 0m
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 88¢ $3,200 56m
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 85¢ $278 57m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $3,240 57m
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? SELL Yes 73¢ $58 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? SELL Yes 73¢ $43 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $1,360 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? SELL Yes 73¢ $1,095 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? SELL Yes 73¢ $350 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? SELL Yes 73¢ $146 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? SELL Yes 73¢ $128 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? SELL Yes 73¢ $132 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? SELL Yes 73¢ $14 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? SELL Yes 73¢ $15 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? SELL Yes 73¢ $15 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? SELL Yes 73¢ $36 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? SELL Yes 73¢ $2 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? SELL Yes 73¢ $146 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? SELL Yes 73¢ $69 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 74¢ $3,126 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $1,398 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $1,100 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $556 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $1,380 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $544 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $557 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $221 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $141 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $98 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 76¢ $155 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $75,374.00 · official $75,374.00 (match) · 3454 history records