Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:47:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa290…63b9 crypto 112 markets active 2h ago coverage 109d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$172 (-27%) realized −$169 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate34%35W / 68L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$134
7 days−$115
14 days−$115
30 days−$110
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 42% −$45
other 40% −$58
sports 17% −$13
economics 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-27.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 95 -21.6% -29.0% 32% 31% -30.0%
≤30d 99 -20.0% -27.6% 33% 32% -28.5%
≤90d 102 -20.3% -27.9% 33% 32% -28.0%
all 103 -20.0% -27.6% 34% 33% -27.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.6% 33% -27.7%
10% -34.6% 28% -34.6%
15% -40.9% 26% -41.0%
20% -46.7% 24% -46.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$5 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$169
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses35 / 68
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)103 / 112
History coverage109d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 103 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $3 $3 −$1 (-19%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 5¢ $4 $3 −$2 (-44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $15 +$23 +147%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND W Jun 23 $5 +$25 +495%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 23 $3 +$7 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 23 $6 +$14 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 22 $6 +$11 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 22 $6 +$15 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 22 $3 +$4 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 22 $6 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 22 $6 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 22 $6 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 22 $6 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 22 $6 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 22 $6 +$22 +390%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 22 $6 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 22 $6 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 22 $6 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 22 $6 +$10 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 22 $6 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 22 $6 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 22 $6 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 22 $6 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 22 $6 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 22 $6 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 22 $6 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 22 $6 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 22 $3 +$4 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 22 $3 +$3 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 22 $3 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 22 $3 +$2 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 22 $3 +$3 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 91¢ $38 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 36¢ $15 3h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Spread: England (-1.5) BUY 38¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $3 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $3 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $3 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $3 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $3 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $3 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $3 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $3 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $3 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.22 · official $25.23 · 264 history records