Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T17:45:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa291…3fb4 sports 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 172d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$139 (-24%) realized −$151 · open +$12
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate27%6W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$66
14 days−$66
30 days−$66
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% −$75
other 40% −$54
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-36.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -58.9% -62.8% 17% 17% -41.0%
≤30d 6 -58.9% -62.8% 17% 17% -41.0%
≤90d 21 -37.4% -43.4% 24% 24% -37.2%
all 22 -29.7% -36.4% 27% 27% -32.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.4% 27% -32.7%
10% -42.5% 27% -39.1%
15% -48.0% 27% -45.0%
20% -53.1% 27% -50.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -73% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$18 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

172d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$151
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses6 / 16
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)22 / 23
History coverage172d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Yes 51¢ 74¢ $28 $40 +$12 (+44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $31 −$30 -98%
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $30 −$30 -99%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals Jun 23 $20 −$20 -98%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $51 +$37 +73%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 22 $51 −$14 -27%
Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 3.5 Apr 14 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-07? Apr 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5) Apr 14 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Apr 14 $50 −$26 -51%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 08 $25 +$18 +73%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-04-06? Apr 07 $25 −$25 -100%
Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 2.5 Apr 06 $20 −$2 -8%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 05 $25 −$1 -4%
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2026-04-05? Apr 05 $20 +$35 +178%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona: Both Teams to Score Apr 05 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-02? Apr 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $19 +$20 +105%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-11? Apr 04 $30 −$30 -100%
RCD Mallorca vs. Real Madrid CF: Both Teams to Score Apr 04 $25 +$19 +76%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-08? Jan 11 $17 +$23 +133%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $28 1h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 3d
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $7 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 17¢ $31 3d
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $30 5d
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals BUY Yes 35¢ $20 6d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $51 6d
Spread: France (-2.5) SELL France 43¢ $37 6d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 57¢ $51 6d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $21 76d
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5) BUY Real Madrid CF 51¢ $23 79d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? SELL Yes 100¢ $43 81d
Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 60¢ $24 82d
Will Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 82d
Will Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? SELL Yes 20¢ $24 82d
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-07? BUY Yes 23¢ $15 83d
Will Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $30 83d
Will AC Milan win on 2026-04-06? BUY Yes 30¢ $25 84d
Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 32¢ $18 84d
Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 34¢ $20 84d
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 22¢ $24 84d
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2026-04-05? SELL Yes 100¢ $55 84d
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2026-04-05? BUY Yes 36¢ $20 84d
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 23¢ $25 85d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? BUY Yes 57¢ $25 85d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-04? SELL Yes 100¢ $39 85d
RCD Mallorca vs. Real Madrid CF: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $44 85d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-04? BUY Yes 48¢ $19 85d
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona: Both Teams to Score BUY No 31¢ $15 85d
RCD Mallorca vs. Real Madrid CF: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $25 86d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.35 · official $41.45 · 43 history records