Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T19:48:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A2 0xa295…1979 sports 107 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$10 (+0%) realized +$10 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%106W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$97per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$5
14 days+$9
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% +$5
other 27% +$3
tech 8% +$1
crypto 7% +$1
finance 3% $0
weather 2% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 106 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 106 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 106 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs — no data
Profit factor
no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses106 / 0
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)106 / 107
History coverage16d
Avg bet$97
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 106 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Lionel Messi score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $100 $0 +0%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 22 $100 $0 +0%
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 3 Egypt? Jun 22 $100 $0 +0%
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 22 $100 $0 +0%
Uruguay to win the second half? Jun 22 $100 $0 +0%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 22 $100 $0 +0%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $100 $0 +0%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 21 $100 $0 +0%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $100 $0 +0%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $100 $0 +0%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $100 $0 +0%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $100 $0 +0%
Seattle Storm vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 160.5 Jun 20 $100 $0 +0%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $100 $0 +0%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Charles Broom Jun 20 $100 $0 +0%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $100 $0 +0%
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 20 $100 $0 +0%
Will Bryson DeChambeau finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 20 $100 $0 +0%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 11.5 Jun 20 $100 $0 +0%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $100 $0 +0%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 20 $100 $0 +0%
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 19 $100 $0 +0%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 19 $100 $0 +0%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $100 $0 +0%
Rainbow Six Siege: All Gamers vs TYLOO (BO3) - CN League Stage 1 Group Jun 19 $100 $0 +0%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $100 $0 +0%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $100 $0 +0%
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $100 $0 +0%
Valorant: YFP Gaming vs NRG Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $100 $0 +0%
Rainbow Six Siege: M80 vs Cloud9 (BO1) - North America League Stage 1 Jun 19 $100 $0 +0%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $100 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 18 $100 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $100 $0 +0%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Svyatoslav Gulin Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Spread: Norway (-3.5) Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY No 100¢ $100 43m
Will Lionel Messi score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 2h
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 3 Egypt? BUY No 100¢ $100 16h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 100¢ $100 19h
Uruguay to win the second half? BUY No 100¢ $100 19h
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 20h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 22h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 23h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 100¢ $100 25h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 100¢ $100 25h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 BUY Over 100¢ $100 45h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 100¢ $100 45h
Seattle Storm vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 160.5 BUY Over 100¢ $100 46h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 100¢ $100 47h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Charles Broom BUY Marcos Giron 100¢ $100 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 100¢ $100 2d
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $100 2d
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 100¢ $100 2d
Will Bryson DeChambeau finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 100¢ $100 2d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 100¢ $100 2d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 100¢ $100 2d
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY New York Yankees 100¢ $100 2d
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 100¢ $100 2d
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Under 100¢ $100 3d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner BUY Paper Rex 100¢ $100 3d
Rainbow Six Siege: All Gamers vs TYLOO (BO3) - CN League Stage 1 Group BUY TYLOO 100¢ $100 3d
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 3d
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $100 3d
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $100 3d
Rainbow Six Siege: M80 vs Cloud9 (BO1) - North America League Stage 1 BUY M80 100¢ $100 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.95 · official $99.95 (match) · 213 history records