Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T08:00:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

A2 0xa295…05d3 crypto 21 markets active 6h ago coverage 72d ⚠

TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample⚠ Covers last 72d only

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL −$68,585 (-42%) realized −$78,700 · open +$10,115

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -56% what you keep after slip

Net edge-56%after slip

Net WR25%break-even

Win rate30%6W / 14L

Whale WR20%big bets

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$7,763per market

Trades / day48.2pace

Fees−$165est.

Kalshi-fit90%portable

Net worth$31,249now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$12,830

7 days+$12,830

14 days+$5,074

30 days+$5,074

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +25%

net ROI/market (all)-42.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+142.8%	+119.7%	100%	100%	+119.7%
≤30d	3	-19.1%	-26.8%	33%	33%	+17.9%
≤90d	20	-36.7%	-42.8%	30%	25%	-60.0%
all	20	-36.7%	-42.8%	30%	25%	-60.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover48.2 tr/day

realistic slip~18%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-42.8%	25%	-60.0%
10%	-48.2%	20%	-63.8%
15% ← realistic here	-53.2%	20%	-67.3%
20%	-57.8%	20%	-70.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 41% · top 2 75% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -56% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

17% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -37% · $-wt -56% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 20% (≥$10,056) big bets weaker

Persistence

early -78% → late +5% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

162.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

+$6,255 vs −$8,410 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.32 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage

Net worth$31,249

Realized−$78,700

Unrealized+$10,115

Win rate (resolved)30%

Wins / losses6 / 14

Whale WR (big bets)20%

Est. fees paid−$165

Open positions1

Markets (closed)20 / 21

History coverage72d ⚠

Avg bet$7,763

Trades / day48.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 20 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 29?	Up	40¢	58¢	$21,134	$31,249	+$10,115 (+48%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8PM ET	Jun 29	$8,985	+$12,830	+143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET	Jun 20	$5,245	−$4,359	-83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET	Jun 20	$3,397	−$3,397	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 7?	May 06	$25,388	−$24,837	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 6?	May 06	$10,162	+$15,211	+150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10PM ET	May 06	$6,437	−$6,431	-100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs DN SOOPers Challengers (BO3) - LCK Chall	May 06	$9,996	−$9,996	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12AM ET	May 04	$648	−$648	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11PM ET	May 04	$3,823	+$6,827	+179%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10PM ET	May 04	$1,378	+$2,445	+178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET	May 04	$2,320	−$2,320	-100%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Cadillac Championship?	May 02	$17,060	−$17,037	-100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FaZe (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs	May 01	$5,935	−$5,934	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 3PM ET	May 01	$1,612	+$214	+13%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 27?	Apr 27	$18	+$1	+3%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 18?	Apr 18	$18,528	−$18,518	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 5PM ET	Apr 18	$10,056	−$10,056	-100%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 RBC Heritage?	Apr 17	$103	−$4,082	-3965%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET	Apr 17	$5,600	−$5,600	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	Apr 17	$4,522	−$4,522	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 29?	BUY Up	39¢	$12	5h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 29?	BUY Up	40¢	$1,209	5h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 29?	BUY Up	40¢	$931	5h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 29?	BUY Up	40¢	$20	5h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 29?	BUY Up	40¢	$20	5h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 29?	BUY Up	39¢	$144	5h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 29?	BUY Up	38¢	$7	5h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 29?	BUY Up	38¢	$24	5h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 29?	BUY Up	37¢	$167	5h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 29?	BUY Up	39¢	$3,037	5h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 29?	BUY Up	40¢	$3,750	5h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 29?	BUY Up	39¢	$24	5h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 29?	BUY Up	39¢	$207	6h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 29?	BUY Up	38¢	$353	6h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 29?	BUY Up	37¢	$188	6h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 29?	BUY Up	39¢	$645	6h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 29?	BUY Up	39¢	$2,605	6h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 29?	BUY Up	39¢	$5	6h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 29?	BUY Up	39¢	$645	6h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 29?	BUY Up	40¢	$2,101	6h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 29?	BUY Up	40¢	$733	6h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 29?	BUY Up	40¢	$67	6h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 29?	BUY Up	40¢	$25	6h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 29?	BUY Up	40¢	$150	6h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 29?	BUY Up	40¢	$2	6h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 29?	BUY Up	40¢	$160	6h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 29?	BUY Up	40¢	$652	6h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 29?	BUY Up	40¢	$28	6h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 29?	BUY Up	40¢	$160	6h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 29?	BUY Up	40¢	$11	6h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31,248.99 · official $31,248.99 (match) · 3500 history records