Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:58:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa297…2574 weather 944 markets active 10h ago coverage 97d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,128 (-3%) realized −$1,116 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate83%751W / 155L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day20.5pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$1,589now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days−$808
30 days−$841
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 26% −$434
weather 24% −$393
crypto 22% +$20
other 11% −$227
politics 8% −$159
finance 3% +$33
world 3% −$17
culture 2% +$20
tech 1% −$16
economics 1% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 107 +0.8% -8.8% 96% 6% -9.5%
≤30d 657 -3.1% -12.4% 92% 10% -12.4%
≤90d 905 -5.4% -14.4% 83% 9% -12.8%
all 906 -5.4% -14.4% 83% 9% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.4% 9% -12.8%
10% ← realistic here -22.6% 3% -21.1%
15% -30.1% 1% -28.8%
20% -36.9% 0% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$16 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$1,589
Realized−$1,116
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses751 / 155
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions37
Markets (closed)906 / 944
History coverage97d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day20.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 37 History 906 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 40¢ 80¢ $30 $60 +$30 (+99%)
Will Robert Charles win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary election? Yes 96¢ 96¢ $24 $24 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 13¢ 18¢ $9 $13 +$4 (+47%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 89¢ 86¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-3%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes 92¢ 85¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-7%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes 16¢ 52¢ $3 $11 +$7 (+222%)
Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes 30¢ 50¢ $6 $10 +$4 (+65%)
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 6¢ 2¢ $19 $6 −$13 (-68%)
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? Yes 6¢ 10¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+75%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 86¢ 81¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? Yes 15¢ 18¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+20%)
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Yes 25¢ 14¢ $6 $3 −$3 (-44%)
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+7%)
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-6%)
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+8%)
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+8%)
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+8%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-25%)
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+14%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 35¢ 12¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-64%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 19? Yes 13¢ 3¢ $8 $2 −$6 (-78%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 17¢ 10¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 84 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 15 $59 +$2 +3%
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $7 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$1 +5%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $15 +$1 +6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +28%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $1 $0 +39%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? Jun 12 $18 +$2 +10%
Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of June 8 above $290? Jun 12 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 9? Jun 12 $0 $0 +4%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 7? Jun 12 $0 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C or higher on May 21? Jun 12 $0 $0 +6%
LoL: T1 vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 12 $0 $0 +12%
Will RCA Zemamra win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $7 +$1 +12%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-09? Jun 12 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 9? Jun 12 $34 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 8? Jun 12 $49 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 8? Jun 12 $19 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 6? Jun 12 $71 +$3 +4%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 6? Jun 12 $39 +$3 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on June 12? Jun 12 $15 +$1 +4%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +5%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 12? Jun 12 $14 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $14 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $16 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 12? Jun 12 $13 +$1 +4%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $13 $0 +2%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Jun Jun 12 $13 +$1 +6%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $13 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $13 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $15 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $13 +$2 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $14 +$1 +5%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $725 on June 12? Jun 12 $14 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $15 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $8 $0 +4%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $345 on June 12? Jun 12 $8 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $15 $0 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $15 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $15 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 12 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $15 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 11? Jun 12 $13 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12AM ET Jun 12 $14 +$1 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $12 9h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 13¢ $8 9h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $12 25h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 39¢ $15 2d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 12? BUY Yes 98¢ $2 5d
Will RCA Zemamra win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 89¢ $7 5d
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 96¢ $7 5d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 12? BUY Yes 98¢ $8 5d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 12? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 5d
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 BUY Over 100¢ $9 5d
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 BUY Over 100¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 12? BUY Yes 99¢ $4 5d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 12? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 5d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 12? BUY Yes 96¢ $10 5d
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Eintracht Spandau 100¢ $10 5d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? BUY Yes 95¢ $10 5d
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? BUY Yes 98¢ $13 5d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 96¢ $13 5d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Jun BUY Yes 94¢ $13 5d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 96¢ $13 5d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $725 on June 12? BUY Yes 99¢ $14 5d
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $345 on June 12? BUY Yes 98¢ $8 5d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 12? BUY Yes 98¢ $15 5d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 12? BUY Yes 96¢ $0 5d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 12? BUY Yes 96¢ $15 5d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 94¢ $15 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 5d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 5d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 12? BUY Yes 99¢ $13 5d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? BUY Yes 98¢ $9 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,588.91 · official $1,588.35 (match) · 2771 history records