Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T11:32:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa297…6a6e other 73 markets active 0h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$212 (-21%) realized −$248 · open +$36
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate29%19W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$167now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$54
7 days−$159
14 days−$122
30 days−$145
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
culture 30% +$21
other 29% −$159
world 26% −$52
sports 8% −$29
politics 6% +$3
crypto 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-40.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -61.0% -64.8% 21% 21% -74.5%
≤30d 36 -31.6% -38.1% 25% 22% -41.9%
≤90d 66 -34.7% -40.9% 29% 24% -37.1%
all 66 -34.7% -40.9% 29% 24% -37.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.9% 24% -37.1%
10% -46.5% 21% -43.1%
15% -51.7% 20% -48.6%
20% -56.4% 12% -53.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -50% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$10 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$167
Realized−$248
Unrealized+$36
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses19 / 47
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions7
Markets (closed)66 / 73
History coverage94d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m? Yes 73¢ 76¢ $59 $61 +$2 (+4%)
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 11¢ $15 $49 +$34 (+230%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+7%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $17 $21 +$4 (+22%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-31%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $9 $6 −$3 (-32%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 10¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m Jun 21 $54 −$53 -99%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-3.5) Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +50%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $17 −$16 -95%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $6 +$5 +90%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 15 $15 +$6 +38%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $44 −$17 -38%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $8 −$5 -66%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $20 +$31 +150%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 11 $7 −$4 -63%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $25 +$17 +67%
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than Jun 03 $3 −$3 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 03 $7 −$5 -71%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 03 $5 −$5 -91%
Israeli forces enter Beirut by June 30? Jun 01 $3 −$1 -37%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 01 $3 $0 +3%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 25m Jun 01 $1 −$1 -79%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? May 31 $16 −$1 -5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 29 $14 −$14 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 29 $8 −$1 -7%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 57m and 61m? May 29 $1 −$1 -97%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? May 29 $22 +$6 +26%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $1 −$1 -73%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 31m and 35m? May 28 $1 −$1 -65%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be b May 27 $10 +$8 +81%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? May 26 $3 +$16 +525%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be b May 24 $21 −$17 -81%
Will The Deep die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 20 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Arsenal win a trophy this season? May 19 $66 −$50 -76%
Will Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? May 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $7 −$7 -99%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-05-07? May 07 $8 +$6 +73%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $2 −$1 -99%
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 8 May 04 $32 −$31 -98%
Jimmy Kimmel fired/resigns by May 31? May 03 $60 +$3 +5%
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 03 $6 −$2 -25%
Kathryn Newton as Cassie Lang? Apr 30 $6 +$1 +19%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m SELL Yes $1 12m
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m BUY Yes 77¢ $45 1h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY No $1 25h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m BUY Yes 80¢ $10 26h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m BUY Yes 43¢ $2 2d
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m BUY Yes 54¢ $54 2d
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 3d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $4 3d
Spread: Portugal (-3.5) BUY Portugal 14¢ $20 3d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 4d
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m BUY Yes 43¢ $2 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $1 5d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $3 5d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $1 5d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 38¢ $7 5d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 5d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 5d
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Spain 21¢ $1 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $28 6d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $6 6d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $4 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 22¢ $27 6d
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 34¢ $4 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 34¢ $5 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL Yes $3 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 35¢ $35 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $166.64 · official $166.64 (match) · 173 history records