Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:36:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa299…ac77 other 1029 markets active 0h ago coverage 65d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,291 (-8%) realized −$2,290 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate39%397W / 630L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day31.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit3%portable
Net worth$78now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$22
7 days−$713
14 days−$1,194
30 days−$1,933
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 97% −$2,450
world 2% +$26
sports 1% −$30
crypto 1% −$148
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-20.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -37.5% -43.5% 27% 27% -44.7%
≤30d 455 -9.1% -17.8% 37% 37% -18.0%
≤90d 1027 -12.2% -20.5% 39% 38% -16.5%
all 1027 -12.2% -20.5% 39% 38% -16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.5% 38% -16.5%
10% ← realistic here -28.1% 35% -24.5%
15% -35.1% 30% -31.8%
20% -41.4% 25% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$21 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$78
Realized−$2,290
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses397 / 630
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1027 / 1029
History coverage65d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day31.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit3%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1027 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $63 $62 −$1 (-1%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 371 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 +$29 +58%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $13 −$12 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $36 +$28 +78%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $7 +$3 +38%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -99%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $42 −$39 -93%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $46 +$30 +67%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $67 −$60 -90%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $8 −$4 -48%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $71 +$29 +42%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $66 +$32 +48%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $62 +$13 +22%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $42 +$21 +49%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $192 −$166 -87%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $100 −$84 -83%
New Zealand to score first vs. IR Iran? Jun 16 $10 −$1 -7%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $77 −$56 -73%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$7 -45%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $56 −$39 -70%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $80 −$55 -68%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $53 +$48 +90%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -96%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $39 −$32 -83%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $29 −$21 -74%
Will UnionTouargaSports win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $27 −$26 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $49 −$48 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $18 +$81 +442%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $58 −$57 -98%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $67 +$25 +38%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $16 −$15 -94%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $21 −$12 -55%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $75 −$57 -76%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $165 −$164 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $41 +$43 +105%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $184 −$156 -85%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $52 −$33 -63%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $49 +$77 +158%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $43 −$42 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $122 +$38 +31%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $11 −$11 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 3m
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 16¢ $16 4m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $59 4m
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 96¢ $80 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $13 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $51 2h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 18h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 87¢ $63 18h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $15 22h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $36 22h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 31h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $7 44h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 44h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 44h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 47h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $42 47h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 47h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 98¢ $76 47h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $6 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $46 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 7¢ $7 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $1 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 66¢ $66 2d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $71 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 98¢ $97 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $77.56 · official $77.56 (match) · 2051 history records