Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:17:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
A2 0xa29a…09c7 sports 137 markets active 0h ago coverage 56d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 56d only
✗ bot/MM pace (61 trades/day) — uncopyable
Total PnL +$1,363 (+91%) realized +$1,339 · open +$24
Gross ROI / mkt +114% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +65% what you keep after slip
Net edge+65%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate71%42W / 17L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day61.4pace
Fees−$37est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$707now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$61
14 days+$88
30 days+$232
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 47% +$246
other 25% $0
culture 22% +$15
politics 5% +$6
tech 1% +$16
world 0% $0
economics 0% +$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (61 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)+93.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +93.7% +75.3% 79% 71% +33.6%
≤30d 44 +146.0% +122.6% 68% 61% +40.2%
≤90d 59 +114.0% +93.6% 71% 61% +36.0%
all 59 +114.0% +93.6% 71% 61% +36.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover61.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +93.6% 61% +36.0%
10% ← realistic here +75.1% 47% +22.9%
15% +58.2% 37% +11.1%
20% +42.7% 32% +0.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +54% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +114% · $-wt +54% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +121% → late +108% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
14.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$2 · ×4.04 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×10.61 per $1 lost it wins $10.61
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$707
Realized+$1,339
Unrealized+$24
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses42 / 17
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions80
Markets (closed)59 / 137
History coverage56d ⚠
Avg bet$11
Trades / day61.4
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 80 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes $90 $80 −$10 (-11%)
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes $72 $67 −$5 (-7%)
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes $84 $60 −$24 (-28%)
Will the Colorado Avalanche be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? Yes 11¢ $18 $33 +$15 (+83%)
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes $25 $28 +$3 (+12%)
Will the Edmonton Oilers be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? Yes $14 $26 +$12 (+85%)
Will Bruno Mars be the top Spotify artist for 2026? Yes $33 $25 −$8 (-24%)
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes $23 $23 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes $26 $23 −$3 (-12%)
Will Dune: Messiah be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes $28 $21 −$7 (-24%)
Will the Vegas Golden Knights be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? Yes $10 $19 +$9 (+86%)
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes $21 $19 −$2 (-10%)
Will the Utah Mammoth be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? Yes $5 $13 +$9 (+185%)
Will the St. Louis Blues be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? Yes $4 $13 +$9 (+214%)
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Will the New Jersey Devils be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? Yes $6 $10 +$4 (+76%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $8 $9 +$1 (+16%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $9 $9 +$0 (+0%)
Will the San Jose Sharks be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? Yes $3 $9 +$6 (+187%)
Will the Buffalo Sabres be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? Yes $5 $9 +$4 (+67%)
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes $9 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes $7 $8 +$1 (+13%)
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes $8 $8 +$0 (+2%)
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes $16 $8 −$8 (-51%)
Will The Weeknd be the top Spotify artist for 2026? Yes $10 $8 −$3 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +37%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $2 +$7 +413%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +54%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet Jun 15 $2 $0 +22%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $37 +$7 +19%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $8 +$3 +30%
Will the Atlanta Falcons win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $11 +$16 +137%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $7 $0 -6%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $19 +$21 +110%
Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general ele Jun 12 $8 $0 +1%
Will Coalition Avenir Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec gen Jun 12 $8 $0 -1%
Will the Cleveland Browns win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $1 +$4 +488%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $17 +$2 +11%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $1 $0 -3%
Will Kendrick Lamar be the top Spotify artist for 2026? Jun 09 $1 +$2 +166%
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? Jun 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be at least 600k? Jun 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? Jun 09 $7 −$1 -8%
Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 09 $24 +$5 +22%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $3 +$1 +17%
Will Nathan MacKinnon win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? Jun 07 $33 +$23 +68%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $10 −$1 -8%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on De Jun 07 $0 +$6 +3960%
Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO Jun 07 $15 −$1 -8%
Will Carter Hart win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? Jun 07 $3 −$3 -87%
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.5T and 1.8T at market close o Jun 07 $4 +$2 +45%
Will Frederik Andersen win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? Jun 07 $5 −$1 -12%
Will Jack Eichel win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? Jun 07 $0 $0 -100%
Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on June 30? Jun 05 $4 $0 +3%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $27 +$9 +32%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 03 $1 $0 +3%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $3 $0 +13%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $13 $0 -2%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 01 $1 +$31 +3872%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 01 $4 +$19 +513%
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 0.9T and 1.2T at market close o May 31 $2 −$1 -33%
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 31 $30 +$45 +147%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 30 $22 +$20 +88%
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.2T and 1.5T at market close o May 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 May 28 $2 +$1 +28%
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of May 28 $8 +$10 +125%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 19 $1 $0 +23%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb May 18 $4 +$10 +241%
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 18 $22 +$10 +48%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 16 $1 $0 +11%
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 16 $12 +$12 +102%
NHL Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Ducks vs. Golden Knights May 15 $12 −$4 -33%
NHL Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Hurricanes vs. Flyers May 09 $7 +$2 +32%
Will Macklin Celebrini win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? May 09 $21 +$1 +3%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 07 $2 $0 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Buffalo Sabres be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? BUY Yes $2 5m
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL Yes $1 5m
Will the Buffalo Sabres be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? BUY Yes $1 2h
Will the Buffalo Sabres be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? BUY Yes $2 2h
Will the Edmonton Oilers be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion BUY Yes $3 3h
Will the Edmonton Oilers be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion BUY Yes $3 5h
Will the Edmonton Oilers be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion BUY Yes $2 9h
Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY Yes $1 12h
Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY Yes $2 12h
Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 12h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 16h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 16h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 16h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 16h
Will the New Jersey Devils be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champi BUY Yes $1 17h
Will the Ottawa Senators be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion BUY Yes $1 17h
Will the Vancouver Canucks be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champi BUY Yes $0 17h
Will the St. Louis Blues be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion BUY Yes $3 17h
Will the St. Louis Blues be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion BUY Yes $1 17h
Will the Detroit Red Wings be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champi BUY Yes $1 17h
Will the Detroit Red Wings be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champi BUY Yes $0 17h
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Cham BUY Yes $0 17h
Will the Winnipeg Jets be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? BUY Yes $0 17h
Will the New York Rangers be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champio BUY Yes $1 17h
Will the San Jose Sharks be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion BUY Yes $1 17h
Will the Boston Bruins be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? BUY Yes $0 17h
Will the Los Angeles Kings be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champi BUY Yes $0 17h
Will the Columbus Blue Jackets be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Ch BUY Yes $1 17h
Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 17h
Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $706.74 · official $706.81 (match) · 3500 history records