Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T22:38:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A2
0xa29b…a0b8
other · 175 markets active 2h ago
7.0score
+$3,442 +5%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$3,588 · open −$145
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Net worth$5
Realized+$3,588
Unrealized−$145
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses100 / 74
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$43
Open positions1
Markets (closed)174 / 175
History coverage886d
Avg bet$388
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit60%
Chart Positions 1 History 174 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$897
7 days−$1,058
14 days−$924
30 days−$768
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? Yes 50¢ $150 $5 −$145 (-97%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 Under 91¢ $1,000 $0 −$1,000 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $1,003 −$1,000 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,127 +$103 +9%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 May 18-24? Jun 09 $150 −$150 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 05 $101 −$5 -5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 June 1-7? Jun 02 $149 +$139 +93%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $101 +$85 +84%
Roland Garros ATP: Quentin Halys vs Alexander Zverev May 30 $1,002 +$85 +8%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $20 +$7 +32%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Coco Gauff vs Elina Svitolina May 16 $102 +$131 +129%
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 May 11-17? May 15 $156 −$151 -97%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Aryna Sabalenka vs Sorana Cirstea May 09 $201 +$1 +0%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $101 −$4 -4%
CA Osasuna vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 1.5 May 03 $101 −$101 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $1,002 +$73 +7%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $100 −$2 -2%
Madrid Open: Alexander Blockx vs Alexander Zverev May 01 $1,004 +$133 +13%
Madrid Open: Jannik Sinner vs Arthur Fils May 01 $1,002 +$72 +7%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Apr 30 $694 +$692 +100%
Madrid Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Fabian Marozsan Apr 26 $100 +$42 +42%
Madrid Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Lorenzo Musetti Apr 24 $100 +$20 +20%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Apr 22 $300 +$247 +82%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 April 20-26? Apr 22 $151 +$135 +90%
Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026? Apr 20 $100 +$54 +54%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $1,000 +$29 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 April 13-19? Apr 13 $150 −$97 -65%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 13 $100 +$23 +23%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $500 +$14 +3%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Valentin Vacherot Apr 11 $1,000 +$39 +4%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Alexander Zverev vs Jannik Sinner Apr 11 $1,000 +$50 +5%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-10? Apr 11 $100 −$100 -100%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Bublik Apr 10 $1,000 +$41 +4%
Set 1 Winner: Alcaraz vs Etcheverry Apr 10 $155 +$15 +10%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-04? Apr 05 $1,500 +$717 +48%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $100 −$100 -100%
Will RCD Mallorca vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Apr 04 $50 −$50 -100%
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Team Vitality (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Apr 04 $1,000 −$385 -38%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 March 30-April 5? Apr 03 $200 −$106 -53%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$600M one day after launch? Apr 02 $2 $0 -3%
Miami Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Coco Gauff Mar 29 $100 +$22 +22%
Miami Open: Francisco Cerundolo vs Alexander Zverev Mar 27 $500 +$56 +11%
Miami Open: Elena Rybakina vs Jessica Pegula Mar 26 $500 +$32 +6%
Miami Open: Alex Michelsen vs Jannik Sinner Mar 24 $1,000 −$39 -4%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 March 23-29? Mar 23 $150 −$104 -69%
Miami Open: Anastasia Zakharova vs Victoria Mboko Mar 22 $1,000 +$83 +8%
Saint Louis Billikens vs. Michigan Wolverines Mar 21 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 March 16-22? Mar 20 $150 +$171 +114%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-18? Mar 19 $599 +$233 +39%
Arsenal FC vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 1.5 Mar 18 $100 +$20 +20%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-17? Mar 17 $100 +$13 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 53% −$67
other 35% +$4,130
crypto 7% −$334
finance 2% −$5
world 2% −$35
politics 1% −$224
economics 0% −$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 BUY Under 91¢ $1,003 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 94¢ $1,230 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 86¢ $990 3h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 83¢ $137 4h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? BUY Yes 50¢ $150 5d
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Maja Chwalinska 19¢ $10 7d
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli SELL Flavio Cobolli 50¢ $97 8d
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli BUY Flavio Cobolli 51¢ $101 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 June 1-7? BUY Yes 50¢ $149 11d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 54¢ $101 14d
Roland Garros ATP: Quentin Halys vs Alexander Zverev BUY Alexander Zverev 92¢ $1,002 15d
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic SELL Joao Fonseca 25¢ $27 15d
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic BUY Joao Fonseca 18¢ $20 15d
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 May 18-24? BUY Yes 49¢ $150 26d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Coco Gauff vs Elina Svitolina BUY Elina Svitolina 43¢ $102 28d
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 May 11-17? SELL Yes $1 29d
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 May 11-17? SELL Yes $3 29d
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 May 11-17? BUY Yes 48¢ $129 33d
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 May 11-17? BUY Yes 46¢ $27 33d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Aryna Sabalenka vs Sorana Cirstea SELL Aryna Sabalenka 88¢ $202 35d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Aryna Sabalenka vs Sorana Cirstea BUY Aryna Sabalenka 87¢ $201 35d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? SELL Yes 60¢ $97 38d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 38d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-02? BUY Yes 93¢ $1,002 42d
CA Osasuna vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 78¢ $101 42d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-02? SELL Yes 86¢ $99 42d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-02? BUY Yes 87¢ $100 42d
Madrid Open: Alexander Blockx vs Alexander Zverev BUY Alexander Zverev 88¢ $1,004 43d
Madrid Open: Jannik Sinner vs Arthur Fils SELL Jannik Sinner 100¢ $1,074 43d
Madrid Open: Jannik Sinner vs Arthur Fils BUY Jannik Sinner 93¢ $1,002 43d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -72.7% -75.3% 25% 0% -51.4%
≤30d 11 -4.2% -13.3% 55% 36% -27.2%
≤90d 50 -0.7% -10.1% 64% 38% -4.5%
all 174 -10.1% -18.7% 57% 37% -4.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.7% 37% -4.7%
10% -26.4% 26% -13.8%
15% -33.6% 20% -22.2%
20% -40.1% 14% -29.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.65 · official $4.65 (match) · 433 history records