Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:43:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
A2 0xa29d…6d1e other 92 markets active 2h ago coverage 284d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$233 (-7%) realized −$157 · open −$76
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate42%37W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$123now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days+$144
14 days+$144
30 days+$138
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$332
finance 32% −$40
crypto 19% +$98
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-21.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +105.9% +86.3% 60% 60% +123.7%
≤30d 6 +71.6% +55.2% 50% 50% +110.7%
≤90d 38 +0.4% -9.2% 39% 34% -6.7%
all 89 -13.7% -21.9% 42% 35% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.9% 35% -16.0%
10% -29.4% 30% -24.0%
15% -36.2% 26% -31.4%
20% -42.5% 22% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$23 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

284d coverage
Net worth$123
Realized−$157
Unrealized−$76
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses37 / 52
Open positions3
Markets (closed)89 / 92
History coverage284d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 89 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? Yes 35¢ 35¢ $90 $91 +$1 (+1%)
Hyperbeat FDV above $50M one day after launch? Yes 30¢ 26¢ $24 $21 −$3 (-13%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? Yes 22¢ 3¢ $85 $11 −$74 (-87%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $21 −$5 -25%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $15 −$2 -11%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21? Jun 18 $26 +$59 +225%
o1 FDV above $700M one day after launch? Jun 18 $3 +$2 +60%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? Jun 14 $32 +$91 +281%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June? Jun 03 $6 −$6 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 May 18-24? May 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April? Apr 23 $104 −$75 -72%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April? Apr 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Sentio FDV above $50M one day after launch? Apr 15 $11 +$18 +162%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? Apr 12 $100 +$1 +1%
Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by April 30? Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
OneFootball FDV above $50M one day after launch? Apr 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in April? Apr 08 $49 −$33 -67%
Mezo FDV above $100M one day after launch? Apr 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? Apr 02 $100 −$100 -100%
EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch? Apr 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Will USD.AI launch a token by March 31? Apr 01 $18 +$75 +418%
Over $4M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Mar 31 $21 −$21 -100%
Over $6M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Mar 31 $32 −$32 -100%
Over $3M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Mar 31 $24 −$24 -100%
Over $2M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Mar 31 $20 −$20 -100%
Over $1M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Mar 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 28? Mar 31 $14 −$14 -100%
Over $8M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Mar 31 $21 +$4 +17%
EdgeX FDV above $600M one day after launch? Mar 31 $49 +$4 +8%
Over $10M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Mar 30 $45 +$25 +56%
Based FDV above $100M one day after launch? Mar 30 $33 +$22 +67%
Will Solana dip to $80 March 23-29? Mar 28 $102 +$72 +71%
EdgeX FDV above $300M one day after launch? Mar 27 $9 +$15 +167%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of March? Mar 26 $66 −$46 -71%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,300 (LOW) in March 2026? Mar 25 $101 −$55 -55%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,000 by end of March? Mar 25 $60 −$44 -73%
Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch? Mar 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March? Mar 23 $101 +$101 +100%
Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch? Mar 23 $19 +$8 +45%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by end of March? Mar 23 $101 +$213 +212%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? Mar 22 $5 −$4 -86%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March? Mar 06 $42 −$40 -96%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $70 by end of March? Mar 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March? Mar 03 $351 +$15 +4%
Fabric FDV above $400M one day after launch? Mar 02 $16 +$4 +22%
Bitway FDV above $100M one day after launch? Mar 02 $26 −$8 -30%
Aztec FDV above $300M one day after launch? Feb 13 $18 +$3 +17%
Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch? Feb 13 $34 +$10 +30%
Over $200K committed to the Foresee public sale? Feb 13 $23 −$23 -100%
Space FDV above $15M one day after launch? Feb 08 $13 +$16 +119%
Will Gold (GC) settle over $5,000 on the final trading day of January Jan 31 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Silver (SI) settle over $100 on the final trading day of January Jan 31 $22 −$22 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? BUY Yes 35¢ $93 2h
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 20? SELL Yes 17¢ $16 5h
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 20¢ $21 9h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? SELL No 15¢ $12 33h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? SELL No 15¢ $1 33h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? BUY No 15¢ $15 33h
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21? SELL Yes 85¢ $85 2d
o1 FDV above $700M one day after launch? SELL No 90¢ $4 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21? BUY Yes 26¢ $26 2d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? SELL Yes 16¢ $68 3d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? SELL Yes 18¢ $80 3d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? SELL Yes 19¢ $12 3d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? SELL Yes 19¢ $10 3d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? BUY Yes 14¢ $148 3d
o1 FDV above $700M one day after launch? BUY No 56¢ $3 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? SELL Yes 62¢ $117 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? SELL Yes 62¢ $6 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? BUY Yes 15¢ $32 10d
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 10d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? BUY Yes 22¢ $85 10d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June? BUY No 6¢ $6 17d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 May 18-24? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 30d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 May 18-24? BUY Yes 20¢ $13 30d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 May 18-24? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 30d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 May 18-24? BUY Yes 20¢ $15 30d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 May 18-24? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 30d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 May 18-24? BUY Yes 20¢ $18 30d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 May 18-24? BUY Yes 20¢ $15 30d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 May 18-24? BUY Yes 20¢ $19 30d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April? SELL Yes 4¢ $29 58d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $123.02 · official $123.02 (match) · 317 history records